2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Liverpool	37	25	8	4	85	40	+45	83	LXLW	18	14	3	1	41	15	19	11	5	3	44	25
	2		Arsenal	37	19	14	4	67	33	+34	71	WXLX	19	11	6	2	35	17	18	8	8	2	32	16
	3		Manchester City	37	20	8	9	70	44	+26	68	WOWW	19	13	3	3	43	23	18	7	5	6	27	21
	4		Newcastle United	37	20	6	11	68	46	+22	66	LWXW	18	12	2	4	40	19	19	8	4	7	28	27
	5		Chelsea	37	19	9	9	63	43	+20	66	WLWW	19	12	5	2	35	18	18	7	4	7	28	25
	6		Aston Villa	37	19	9	9	58	49	+9	66	WWWL	19	11	7	1	34	20	18	8	2	8	24	29
	7		Nottingham Forest	37	19	8	10	58	45	+13	65	WXXL	18	9	5	4	26	15	19	10	3	6	32	30
	8		Brighton & HA	37	15	13	9	62	58	+4	58	WWXW	19	8	8	3	30	26	18	7	5	6	32	32
	9		Brentford	37	16	7	14	65	56	+9	55	LWWW	19	9	4	6	40	35	18	7	3	8	25	21
	10		Fulham	37	15	9	13	54	52	+2	54	WLLW	18	7	5	6	27	28	19	8	4	7	27	24
	11		Bournemouth	37	14	11	12	56	46	+10	53	LLWX	18	7	4	7	21	16	19	7	7	5	35	30
	12		Crystal Palace	37	13	13	11	50	50	+0	52	WWXX	19	6	7	6	24	26	18	7	6	5	26	24
	13		Everton	37	10	15	12	41	44	-3	45	WWXL	19	5	9	5	26	23	18	5	6	7	15	21
	14		Wolves	37	12	5	20	53	68	-15	41	LLLW	18	6	2	10	26	31	19	6	3	10	27	37
	15		West Ham United	37	10	10	17	43	61	-18	40	LWXL	19	5	5	9	23	34	18	5	5	8	20	27
	16		Manchester United	37	10	9	18	42	54	-12	39	LLLX	18	6	3	9	21	28	19	4	6	9	21	26
	17		Tottenham Hotspur	37	11	5	21	63	61	+2	38	LLXL	18	6	3	9	34	31	19	5	2	12	29	30
	18		Leicester City	37	6	7	24	33	78	-45	25	WXWL	19	4	3	12	15	34	18	2	4	12	18	44
	19		Ipswich Town	37	4	10	23	35	79	-44	22	LLXL	18	1	4	13	13	41	19	3	6	10	22	38
	20		Southampton	37	2	6	29	25	84	-59	12	LOLL	18	1	3	14	12	45	19	1	3	15	13	39

Top two are pretty much set in stone. Bottom three have been relegated for weeks. Brighton are very likely to finish 8th which could earn a European spot, but Brentford can still claim that. The main interest surrounds the remaining three Champions League places, with five teams still in contention and two of them playing each other. No other teams have much to play for. There is some prize money at stake and a few teams can move up as many as three places, which could make a difference of £8-£9m, but is that a big consideration in the EPL ? 

 

Fixtures

38	Bournemouth		-	Leicester City
38	Fulham		-	Manchester City
38	Ipswich Town		-	West Ham United
38	Liverpool		-	Crystal Palace
38	Manchester United		-	Aston Villa
38	Newcastle United		-	Everton
38	Nottingham Forest		-	Chelsea
38	Southampton		-	Arsenal
38	Tottenham Hotspur		-	Brighton & HA
38	Wolves		-	Brentford

 

All games start @ 16:00 on Sunday.

 

 

Bournemouth are 11th, but 9th-12th place is still possible.

 

Same with Fulham, they are 10th, but a 9th-12th place finish is still possible.

 

Manchester City will finish 3rd with a point, but a loss could still see them miss out on top 5, although that would require the three teams immediately below them all to win.

 

West Ham can finish as low as 17th, which is the non-relegated wooden spoon, or as high as 14th.

 

Crystal Palace are 12th, but 10th is still possible and many clubs do have a bonus for a top 10 finish.

 

Manchester United could move up two spots.

 

Aston Villa need help from Fulham or Everton,  but the easiest way for them to finish in the top 5 (Champions League) is if they and Forest win.

 

Newcastle United are in the Champions League with a win and will also probably claim a  top 4 spot, which is what many of us are looking for, drop points and they need help.

 

Everton will finish 13th regardless of the result.

 

Nottingham Forest: they are 7th, a point could see them finish 6th, but would require Villa losing, they will surely gamble for the three, as that guarantees at least sixth and could also give them Champions League football if either Newcastle or Villa drop any points.

 

Chelsea are top 5 with the win, a draw is enough if either Newcastle lose or Villa drop points.

 

Arsenal are second unless they lose and Man City win along with an eight goal swing.

 

Tottenham Hotspur could move up three places.

 

Brighton will finish 8th with a point, or if Brentford fail to win.

 

Wolverhampton Wanderers will remain in 14th with a win, but could still finish as low as 17th.

 

Brentford will guarantee 9th place, their joint best ever placing, with all three points and they definitely have a top 10 bonus payment for players. The win will also give them 8th should Brighton lose.

 

 

On the final day post COVID (last four seasons) we have seen three rounds with no draws at all, which is interesting and with a 25-3-12 split ( 62.5%-7.5%-30%) for the 40 games. A standard EPL game is running at 41.3%-24.6%-34.1% (rounded) this season.

 

29 of the games (72.5%) produced 3+ goals and 16 (40% ) saw four or more. EPL average for this season is a respective 57.3% and 34.6%.

 

So, as a starting point, which is all these kinds of stats ever are, we should expect more goals and fewer draws and more so in games where there is little or nothing at stake and where one or more teams would be happy with a point.

I accept it is a small sample, but it backs up what we already know/expect at the end of the season in almost all leagues.

 

Further, teams do like to win their final home game, with that motivation way above the norm if we are talking about "friendly" fixtures.

 

 

On a day when we would normally expect more goals than usual, it might be worthwhile looking at when they should come.....

 

West Ham United are awful in the opening 15 minutes, when they have conceded 13 goals, with a  -11 goal difference, next worst is -6 and the three relegated clubs are an average -4.33.

 

Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham have all scored a league high 25 goals in the opening 30 minutes of games, but it may surprise some to learn that City have also conceded 19, the sixth most.

 

Best team in the last 15 minutes plus of games ? Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle , City? No. The top three are Bournemouth +10 goals and top scorers with 19, Tottenham +9 and Manchester United +8.

 

Spurs start and finish strong, but are poor through that middle 45 minutes.

 

Southampton have a beyond awful 1-14 home goal difference after the 76th minute.

 

Aston Villa have conceded the most away goals (10) after the 76th minute and their -5 goal difference for that period is joint worst with Leicester City.

 

Newcastle United have led at home at half time in an EPL high 72.22 % of games. Forest have conceded the fewest first half home goals, just three and, unsurprisingly, have trailed at the break just once......Liverpool have been behind in three at Anfield at HT.

 

 

Tottenham and Manchester United were both in Bilbao on Wednesday and have the celebration / disappointment to deal with and there is no knowing how much energy either has left. However, it was a big boost for Spurs as a club and Crystal Palace, who had a similar win in the FA Cup Final, fed off that to run up a big score against Wolves a few days later.

 

United have now lost three in a row without scoring and have won just four of their last 21 league games, three of which came against the relegated trio. They are winless in the last eight of those and that is a dire run to take into the summer. Ruben Amorim is under huge pressure and at the time of his appointment six months ago I wrote .....

 

Yet again we have a head coach employed in a HUGE job in the EPL after success in a "minor" league with absolutely no experience of English football. I just do not get it!

 

Despite being just 51yo, Thomas Frank has been a coach for 30 years, he has been at Brentford for almost nine and head coach since October 2018 which makes him the third longest serving in the country after Pep and Simon Weaver of Harrogate Town, who's father owns the club! He has taken the Bees into the EPL and kept them there now for five seasons without ever spending a single day in the bottom three, despite being a selling club and operating on a shoestring budget in Premier League terms. He is personable, tactically astute and media savvy. I do not want him to go anywhere, but at some stage soon he will and how is his CV not far superior to someone with no knowledge of English football who has won a league in the Netherlands, Scotland, Japan or Portugal ? But,as always, I digress!

 

 

Good luck!