From the Thursday clubgowi subscriber newsletter ....

football betting tips -
Thursday July 23rd
 
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Friday, when I will look at a couple of weekend games, Saturday will be MLS only (full round).
 
Talking of MLS, the four larger stake bets all won yesterday, both suggestions in the FCC game were winners inside 37 minutes (!) and we remain on fire this MLS season. 27 bets have seen a 74.07% win rate, with stakes of 56.25 units, returns of 101.44 and a ROI of +80.34%!
 
I am not looking at any of the European ties being played today and qualification games will be Champions League only (as usual), but those will become increasingly interesting as a league stage spot, which is the holy grail for many, nears.
 
That frees up today and I am going to bring forward and run the first of my preseason English football notes. These are going to come in (probably) nine parts and there will also be two for the Bundesliga and one for Ligue 1 and the remainder will run alongside the daily notes starting Monday August 3rd. I think that all were pretty much on the money last year, hopefully these will be too and they should repay reading multiple times. 
 
The League 1 notes below are a taster if you like, but I am quite pleased with them and, as always, they should include plenty of information that you are unlikely to read elsewhere.
 
 
League 1 2026/27
 
First, a look back.....
 
2025/26 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Lincoln City 46 31 10 5 89 41 +48 103 WWWX 23 18 4 1 53 20 23 13 6 4 36 21
  2   Cardiff City 46 27 10 9 90 50 +40 91 LWWW 23 17 2 4 50 23 23 10 8 5 40 27
  3   Stockport County 46 22 11 13 71 58 +13 77 WLWL 23 13 4 6 38 26 23 9 7 7 33 32
  4   Bradford City 46 22 11 13 58 51 +7 77 WXXX 23 15 5 3 32 17 23 7 6 10 26 34
  5   Bolton Wanderers 46 19 18 9 70 52 +18 75 LXXW 23 13 8 2 46 24 23 6 10 7 24 28
  6   Stevenage 46 21 12 13 49 46 +3 75 WXWX 23 14 7 2 27 13 23 7 5 11 22 33
  7   Luton Town 46 21 11 14 68 56 +12 74 WWWX 23 13 6 4 37 24 23 8 5 10 31 32
  8   Plymouth Argyle 46 22 7 17 75 63 +12 73 WWXW 23 10 4 9 33 33 23 12 3 8 42 30
  9   Huddersfield Town 46 18 13 15 74 64 +10 67 WLXX 23 11 9 3 42 27 23 7 4 12 32 37
  10   Mansfield Town 46 16 17 13 62 50 +12 65 WOWW 23 9 8 6 38 27 23 7 9 7 24 23
  11   Wycombe Wanderers 46 17 12 17 69 58 +11 63 WLLX 23 13 3 7 45 23 23 4 9 10 24 35
  12   Reading 46 16 15 15 64 60 +4 63 LXLL 23 10 7 6 33 28 23 6 8 9 31 32
  13   Blackpool 46 17 9 20 54 65 -11 60 WWWW 23 12 5 6 35 29 23 5 4 14 19 36
  14   Doncaster Rovers 46 17 9 20 50 69 -19 60 WXLW 23 9 6 8 27 32 23 8 3 12 23 37
  15   Barnsley 46 15 14 17 68 73 -5 59 LWLL 23 9 6 8 39 37 23 6 8 9 29 36
  16   Wigan Athletic 46 14 14 18 49 58 -9 56 LLOW 23 11 4 8 24 17 23 3 10 10 25 41
  17   Burton Albion 46 13 15 18 50 60 -10 54 XXXW 23 9 5 9 27 28 23 4 10 9 23 32
  18   Peterborough United 46 15 8 23 64 68 -4 53 LOLX 23 8 6 9 39 30 23 7 2 14 25 38
  19   AFC Wimbledon 46 15 8 23 51 72 -21 53 LWLL 23 8 4 11 25 31 23 7 4 12 26 41
  20   Leyton Orient 46 14 10 22 59 71 -12 52 XLLO 23 8 7 8 32 30 23 6 3 14 27 41
  21   Exeter City 46 12 13 21 52 61 -9 49 LXXX 23 8 7 8 30 29 23 4 6 13 22 32
  22   Port Vale 46 10 12 24 36 61 -25 42 LWLL 23 4 9 10 17 25 23 6 3 14 19 36
  23   Rotherham United 46 10 11 25 41 71 -30 41 LXLW 23 6 9 8 24 32 23 4 2 17 17 39
  24   Northampton Town 46 9 8 29 39 74 -35 35 LLLL 23 6 4 13 23 31 23 3 4 16 16 43
The last 12 League 1 seasons have seen the top three positions (36 teams) filled by ............
 
10 relegated teams
4 promoted sides
6 from the previous season's playoffs
13 who finished 7-13
3 who finished 14th or lower
 
The largest group has produced six winners and also filled the top 2 spots in two of the last four seasons and makes a lot of sense, as those teams are coming off a "good" campaign, whilst also avoiding an extended season and heartbreak of a playoff defeat. Only one relegated team had actually won League 1 since 2018, until Birmingham City ended that sequence in 2024/25. However, City had all that US hedge fund money and were spending like King Midas who had just also won the Euro Millions rollover! The three relegated clubs this season are not going to be flashing the cash like that, but we do have two big names in Leicester City and Sheffield Wednesday. 
 
Two of those clubs who came up from League 2 and went straight up again were not your usual promoted teams either, one was on their way to the EPL and the other had sponsorship income the rest of the league could not match combined!
 
So, back to those 7th-13th placed teams and what stands out to me like a sore thumb are the +10/+12 goal difference for those in 7th-11th, the reasons are explained in this article on the clubgowi website and those numbers are way out of the ordinary, so I suspect the quality in this group to be good and we can start with a quick look at each.
 
Luton Town are two years removed from the EPL and still have parachute payments this year, but took a long time to re-establish themselves last season after back to back relegations. They did collect 39 points over the second half of the season which is decent enough and came out 3rd for xP for the full season, albeit with only 9 points between 3rd and 9th place. Town were in the 5th tier in 2014 and had a meteoric rise to the top flight in a decade and maybe after this rollercoaster ride...........
 
The full email ran to another 2,200 words and included a big stake suggestion, but that will have to be kept to subscribers, you can become a member for about a third of the cost or your daily cup of coffee....email for details.
 
Good luck!
 
 

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