Premier League .....setting the scene

football betting tips -
EPL 2026/27
 
Finances:
 
Money usually talks and there can be no doubt that Arsenal will be happy with what they got for their 4th biggest spend (£256m) last season, some genuine depth, a first EPL title since 2004 and a run to the Champions League final.
 
Liverpool (24 point drop off from 24/25) spent an eye watering £420m, Chelsea (17 point drop off), Newcastle (-17 points), Tottenham (relegation battle all season), Forest ( 21 point drop off and relegation campaign) and West Ham (relegated) less so and all with a top ten spend.
 
Sunderland had a very big spend for a promoted team (£185m) with the aim of survival and in addition to that, they got European football! Only time will tell if that is good, or a wolf in sheep's (UEFA) clothing! 
 
It is clearly more about how you spend your money than how much and Brentford (£94m) and Brighton (£72m) continue to get the most bang for their buck in the transfer market and that has long been the case! Aston Villa only spent £71m and were delighted with not only 4th place, but also a Europa League title. However, this had more to do with PSR restrictions than any desire to be frugal, but it shows what can be achieved on a tight budget, their 65 points cost a £1.09m per point transfer spend, Liverpool's came in at £7m pp. This gives even greater pause for thought as in 2024/25 Liverpool had spent almost nothing, signing just two back up players and won the EPL title by 10 points! 
 
However, as we approach the midway stage of the current transfer window I am not sure that those lessons have been learned and most of the Big 6 clubs have been flashing the cash and there have been big money transfers for Tonali, Rogers and Anderson, the last two of which would both have been British record deals, were it not for the other. Tottenham have had a massive spend and the Big 6 are flexing their financial muscles and looking to reestablish their dominance at the top of the EPL. 
 
We do, yet again, have new financial rules. PSR which replaced FFP has now been usurped by SCR (Squad Cost Ratio) and SSR ( Sustainability and Systemic Resilience) .......good grief! They certainly love an acronym!
 
The rules are explained at the foot of this email by legal firm Brabners, who have a dedicated sports law team. 
 
My only comments are ....
 
1) If you change rules to make them more inline with UEFA, why not make them exactly the same?
2) Why set out rules and then say that you can exceed them? That is not a rule!
3) The stated aim is that penalties can be applied more easily and faster, but we all know that the bigger clubs have better legal teams and accountants and only smaller clubs ever get really punished.
 
Changes in head coach:
 
I spoke at the end of last season about a likely off season managerial merry go round in the EPL and we have certainly had that. We have eight new head coaches, another who only signed his contract on March 31st and one more who had his interim appointment made permanent. The most surprising stat of all is that half of those ten changes came at Big 6 clubs. 
 
These elite appointments, as we are talking about the biggest and best league in the world, are made up of five from Spain, 4 English, 3 German, 2 Italian and French and one each from Ireland, Scotland, Austria and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Four have never coached a competitive game in England and 13 never played a game in the country.That makes for a lot of upheaval and unknown factors and all before we start discussing players, with those big name moves we have already touched upon and what effect the longest World Cup campaign ever is going to have on many and that was very draining on the back of a long club season (extended European competitions) and a shortened off season. We saw what a toll that took on Chelsea last season after their Club World Cup exploits.
 
Europe:
 
There are nine teams (45%) competing in Europe, two for the first time, two for just the second and four who will be playing Thursday/Sunday, for a minimum 12-16 rounds, which brings its own issues.
 
We will discuss all teams on an individual basis over the next two weeks but, as a starting point, any EPL side who are established in the top flight, have a second season or more head coach, with money to spend and with no European involvement, are going to have a big advantage over 38 league games IMO.
 
This Saturday ( August 1st) I will have outright notes on the EFL Championship and next week I will send out the first 8-10 club previews for the Premier League.
 
Good luck!
 

The Premier League has taken a major step toward reshaping its financial regulation framework, voting to replace the long‑standing Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) with two new systems — the Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) and the Sustainability and Systematic Resilience Proposal (SSR) — from the 2026/27 season. 

With exactly 14 of the 20 football clubs voting in favour — the minimum required for any rule change — this shift reshapes spending controls, redefines sustainability assessments and strengthens club accountability. Here, Will Hardwick explores what the new rules mean, how they differ from PSR and what clubs can expect next.

 What’s SCR? 

From next season, Premier League clubs will be allowed to spend a maximum of 85% of their revenue on squad costs on a seasonal basis. Those squad costs include head coach wages, player wages, amortised transfers and agents’ fees. Staff outside of the playing squad — such as administrative or commercial personnel — are excluded, as are assistant coaches and other coaching team members. Income relating to women’s teams and youth academies are included in the calculation but costs aren’t, providing clubs with freedom to invest in these areas.

There’s a slight catch, however. For teams competing in UEFA competitions, the limit will be 70% of revenue in line with UEFA’s rules. 

The introduction of SCR brings a degree of alignment with UEFA’s financial sustainability rules. One key difference is that the Premier League’s SCR will run on a seasonal basis rather than UEFA’s calendar-year basis. 

 What’s the difference between SCR & PSR?

The SCR calculation will be based solely on clubs’ football revenues. It switches the focus from overall losses to on-pitch spending relative to income. Under PSR, clubs were previously allowed to lose up to £105m over three seasons with the emphasis being on profit and loss and ensuring that clubs didn’t spend beyond their means. 

The Premier League have said that it “enables more timely enforcement and encourages clubs to manage their finances responsibly in real time, rather than relying on longer-term financial balancing”.

 Are clubs allowed to go over the 85% threshold?

Yes — clubs can exceed this threshold by up to 30%. The 85% is known as the Green Threshold, while 115% is the Red Threshold.

  • If a club breaches the 85%, its allowance the following season will be decreased by the same percentage as the breach. For example, if a promoted team records an SCR of 105%, its Red Threshold the next season will be 95%. This is known as the ‘Feedback Loop’.
  • If a club that’s been subjected to a Negative Feedback Loop becomes compliant, it’ll benefit from a Positive Feedback Loop, increasing its Red Threshold by 10%, up to a maximum of 30%.

 Sanctions & enforcement

Compliance monitoring will take place in-season and be tested on 1 March. 

If a club’s SCR exceeds the Green Threshold in both the Compliance Test and Accounts Confirmation Test, it’ll face financial sanctions in the form of levies (but no sporting sanctions). The fine is calculated by multiplying the percentage overspend above 85% by the overspend figure. For example, if a club overspent by £2m and its ratio was 90%, the calculation would be 2,000,000 x 0.05 = £100,000.

If a club exceeds the Red Threshold, it’ll face a sporting sanction in the form of a points deduction. This is a fixed six-point deduction that increases by one point for every £6.5m spent over the threshold.

 What’s the SSR?

These are a set of tests designed to “improve a club’s sustainability and ‘investability’ over the short-, medium- and long-term”.

The tests are:

  • Working Capital Test — a club must demonstrate that, for each calendar month over the course of a season, the sum of its projected cash balances and qualifying working capital funds is at least £12.5m.
  • Liquidity Test — a club must demonstrate that, for the current and following season, its 'Liquidity Headroom' is zero or positive having absorbed a 'Stress Test' of £85m.
  • Positive Equity Test — a club must demonstrate that its 'Positive Equity Ratio' (liabilities ÷ adjusted assets) is less than or equal to 90% in the 2026/27 season, 85% in the 2027/28 season and 80% from the 2028/29 season onwards.

Each tests take place on 7 July each year. Newly promoted clubs will be assessed on the Liquidity and Positive Equity Tests on October 31.

 Asset sale loophole

The Premier League has also closed a loophole that allowed clubs to sell assets to owner-linked companies to artificially boost revenues and remain compliant with PSR rules. Chelsea F.C.’s sale of two hotels and its women’s teams to sister and parent companies are among the most well-known examples.

 Key takeaways

  1. Clubs will have greater flexibility to invest in off-pitch areas as SCR regulates on-pitch spending only.
  2. The aim is to level the playing field by preventing excessive squad spending, though some mid-tier Premier League clubs argue that the new rules could make it harder to compete with the biggest teams.
  3. Clubs will need to be more strategic in transfer dealings as squad costs include amortised transfer fees and the previous asset sale loophole has been closed.
  4. There are real sporting consequences for overspending.
  5. The rules more closely align the Premier League with UEFA.
  6. They also support the objectives of the Independent Football Regulator, focusing on sustainability and systemic resilience.

 

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