An early look at League 1.....

Jul 29, 2026

League 1 2026/27:

The last 12 League 1 seasons have seen the top three positions (36 teams) filled by ............

10 relegated teams

4 promoted sides

6 from the previous season's playoffs

13 who finished 7-13

3 who finished 14th or lower

The largest group has produced six winners and also filled the top 2 spots in two of the last four seasons and makes a lot of sense, as those teams are coming off a "good" campaign, whilst also avoiding an extended season and heartbreak of a playoff defeat. Only one relegated team had actually won League 1 since 2018, until Birmingham City ended that sequence in 2024/25. However, City had all that US hedge fund money and were spending like King Midas who had just also won the Euro Millions rollover! The three relegated clubs this season are not going to be flashing the cash like that, but we do have two big names in Leicester City and Sheffield Wednesday.

Two of those clubs who came up from League 2 and went straight up again were not your usual promoted teams either, one was on their way to the EPL and the other had sponsorship income the rest of the league could not match combined!

So, back to those 7th-13th placed teams and what stands out to me like a sore thumb are the +10/+12 goal difference for those in 7th-11th, the reasons are explained in this article on the clubgowi website and those numbers are way out of the ordinary, so I suspect the quality in this group to be good and we can start with a quick look at each.

Luton Town are two years removed from the EPL and still have parachute payments this year, but took a long time to re-establish themselves last season after back to back relegations. They did collect 39 points over the second half of the season which is decent enough and came out 3rd for xP for the full season, albeit with only 9 points between 3rd and 9th place. Town were in the 5th tier in 2014 and had a meteoric rise to the top flight in a decade and maybe after this rollercoaster ride, another season of third tier stability would not be terrible, before "going again". Either way, I am not sure that they scream value at current odds. Also, their last five successful campaigns have come after slow starts, so, if you are keen on their chances, it might be better to hold off for a month or two.

Huddersfield Town had two years in the EPL , followed by five in the Championship and were expected by many to have a big second season back in the third tier, but struggled after a decent start, just as they did in the first. They collected just 30 points over the second half of last season (lower mid table level) and took only 19 points from their final 16 starts, which is bottom eight form. In 2024/25 they had a 20 point drop off from the first to second half of the season and they are an easy pass for me following just one good season in their last nine

Plymouth Argyle are "interesting" (perhaps very interesting) but with one significant proviso which I will return to shortly. They won League 1 in 2023 with 31 wins and 101 points and there was plenty of quality in the third tier that year (six teams currently in the Championship). After two seasons in the second tier, they fell out of the blocks last season under new head coach Tom Cleverley, who had no experience as a player or coach of League 1. They picked up just 13 points from their first 14 games, but kept faith with the former England international and played at better than third place level from that point on and promotion level through the second half of the season, with an exceptional 47 points. They posted 12 away wins which is great, especially as they are traditionally strong at home and seem certain to improve upon just 10 victories at Home Park ( they had 20 in that title winning campaign). Argyle have actually played at an elite level in three of their last four half seasons in League 1.

The issue is that they have sold top scorer Lorent Tolaj (18 goals) to Bristol City for a big fee and 16 goal Bim Pepple is also getting attention from the Championship. Cleverley is adamant that he is not leaving, but he kind of "has" to stay, as even with him, Argyle are down to two senior strikers. The head coach says that they are close to adding at least one more and they have money to spend and they are good in the transfer market, especially at identifying strikers. If they do add someone (or even two) and keep Pepple, both of which are stated aims, they look an attractive prospect at odds of circa 15.0.

Wycombe Wanderers have finished 8-6-9-10-5-11 in their last six seasons at this level which is admirable consistency and they will doubtless be knocking on the playoff door again. However, I felt they had a big chance after Christmas last season and got themselves in a very strong position to push for top 6, before falling away at the business end and, another way to look at those six seasons, is that when 46 games had been played, they came up short in four. My thinking is that their big opportunity in 25/26 was let slip with a whimper and for that reason, I am out.

Mansfield Town are a relatively small club, but stable and well run. The owners are committed and head coach Nigel Clough has been at the club for closing in on six years and well over 300 games, they have pretty much improved in each of those seasons and 10th place last season in the third tier was their highest finish since 1986-87. Clough is closing in on 1,000 games as manager and 600 have been in League 1, so no one has more experience. No non promoted team lost fewer games last season and only two sides conceded fewer goals and they are very disciplined and organised and no one has left whom Clough wanted to keep, so no reason to feel they will not be just as tough to break down. A few more goals would be nice and that has been addressed. They have added two veteran strikers in David McGoldrick (147 goals and 50 assists at League 1 and above, most at a higher level, he scored 15 for Barnsley last season) and Michael Smith ( 111 goals and 42 assists) who made 37 Championship appearances last season. Despite his age, I understand that McGoldrick was courted by a whole host of clubs and the Stags have shown great ambition in being able to convince him to sign. Similarly with CM Jon Russell who was hugely impressive on a half season loan last season , with Town pulling out all the stops in order to make the deal permanent. Mansfield also beat Sheffield United (Championship) and Burnley (EPL) on the road in the FA Cup and made Premier League champions Arsenal work very hard for a 2-1 win in Round 5. Their odds are eye catchingly large and we have to find a way to side with them.

Reading have lurched from one financial crisis after another for the past decade and whilst the takeover by Redwood Holdings has hopefully secured their future, we do not know to what degree yet and they seem to be happy to get some stability ATM and nothing wrong with that. It is a 10 years since they last made the playoffs and another close but no cigar finish (7th-10th) seems likely.

Blackpool were my pick last season, but fell out of the blocks. They did, however, play at 8th place level over the final 28 games and head coach Ian Evatt took charge at the end of October to oversee that upturn. He was pretty successful at Bolton Wanderers and his teams have averaged 1.68 points per game across 197 L1 starts, which is usually good for a playoff spot.However, that -11 goal difference is a major concern and defensive concerns from the previous campaign were not addressed and still do not seem to have been. I would not rule them out completely, but am happy to pass on them for now.

Relegated Leicester City and Sheffield Wednesday are going to be big players in the third tier and you would have thought that Jamie Vardy would have fancied a move to one of them and both were interested, as they are the club at which he made his name and his hometown side and he grew up a Wednesday fan, but it appears he is looking elsewhere. Which might tell us something.

City have been relegated in three of their last four seasons and new head coach Russell Martin is intransigent in how he wants to play, has had a nightmare couple of years and his League 1 experience is five years old. Their financial situation is such that they have had to continue to sell, release a host of players and nine who featured in the final Championship game of last season have now departed and more are likely to follow. They still have a bit of quality, but not as much as people seem to think and what they do have, has got too used to losing and odds of 3.75 max make no appeal whatsoever to me.

Wednesday have new owners which allowed them to avoid a 15 point penalty for this season. They are a more working man's price of the two teams and could go well. New owners have put them on a steady financial footing and the nightmare of 25/26 when they suffered a 30 point deduction and finished on zero, is finally over. Last season they had very few players coming into the campaign and anyone who they could transfer or get rid of in a brutal cost cutting campaign, departed. There was no proper preseason and they had to play with a padded out Academy team, it was a sorry state of affairs, especially for what I consider to be one of the most loyal supporter bases in football. They had an attendance of almost 34,000 for their final game of 25/26, the largest in the Championship last season. As I type, they have already sold 25,000 season tickets for third tier football and are close to selling out their home opener.

Those owners, Arise Capital Partners, only took charge ahead of the final game of the season and their first appointment was Simon Wilson as Sporting Director. We know him well, as he was with Stockport County through their meteoric rise from the 6th tier to Championship fringe and ahead of this season's League 1 playoffs I updated with......

County finished 3rd this season, the same placing as last season and with 10 fewer points. However, I did not like that they announced that CEO Simon Wilson was to step away from the club just 3 days ago, he has been a very influential figure at Edgeley Park and why not wait until after the playoffs?

Wilson started his career as a consultant with ProZone, the company that helps clubs analyse player performance.He joined Southampton Football Club as a Performance Analyst in 2002, becoming only the second full-time analyst employed by a UK team.Wilson went on to become Head of Performance Analysis at St Mary’s.

He left Southampton in the summer of 2006 to take on the role of Head of Performance Analysis at Manchester City. After three-and-a-half years in that role, he was appointed Strategy and Performance Manager which saw him take responsibility for the development of all first team and academy departments alongside the club’s Director of Football.

He went on to become Director of Football Services for the City Football Group which owns Manchester City, New York City, and Melbourne City. Following Manchester City, Wilson was appointed Chief Football Officer at Sunderland A.F.C.

In 2018 he started a football consultancy working with top flight clubs and organisations including The Premier League, UEFA, AFC Ajax, FC Copenhagen, Sparta Prague, Levski Sofia and Leicester City. Then joined County.

He was obviously on his way somewhere and now we know where and in addition to his other skill sets, he brings a lot of third tier experience, via B2B third place finishes with County. It has been a busy summer with ten new arrivals and more to follow and they have kept faith with head coach Henrik Pedersen. The Dane has been very open about how he wants to play and we are going to see a very hard and high press from the Owls. His stated aim is for Wednesday to be the "fittest team in League 1 by far" and to that end, the players returned to training a full week before any other team and have been conducting double sessions at a luxury Hungarian training camp where they took their own chefs, last season they would have been lucky to get the team bus to stop at McDonalds! Each training day also now starts with a 25 minute gym session, personalised to the individual.

This all looks and sounds great and is like chalk and cheese compared to last season. However, all that training can make players "leggy" and it can take a few games for the benefit to kick in, also, they have a lot of newcomers and they will have to gel in a competitive match setting.

The four teams coming up from League 2 do not look of the required quality, at least at this stage, as champions Bromley only finished 12 points ahead of the 9th placed team. MK Dons and Notts County are the biggest clubs of the four and both will have long term Championship aims, but probably need to stabilize at the higher level first.

What I am happy to do with Argyle and Wednesday is sit out the first three/four games, by which time the transfer window will also be closed. We should not be too concerned about early results, Sheffield United won L1 in 2017 with 100 points after winning just one of their first five starts and last season Lincoln City were 11th after three games, yet hit 103 points.

Mansfield Town are a little different as their odds are big, they are very stable and look to have done their business, anything else is a bonus. I don't think they can win League 1 as there as too many comparative giants to compete against, but I see little regression and would make them a fantastic bet to finish top half of the table @ circa 2.50+ , I have seen 2.625, but not widely available ATM, that should change as Matchday 1 nears. "Officially" I will go with....

3 units Mansfield Town to finish top 6 @ 7.0 general quote.

Good luck!