Massive game in the AFC West ....
Nov 16, 2025
NFL: Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
This game is huge for both teams. The Broncos lead the division with an 8-2 record, the Chiefs are on 5-4 but have been the dominant force in the NFL for many years and will be fired up for this, coming off a bye week. However, when you have the advantage over a true champion, like the Broncos do now, you do not offer any route back, what you need to do is tighten the grip and squeeze a little harder! KC have won the division 9 seasons in a row, that is a very long time for the Broncos and company to play second fiddle and then sit at home and watch their main rival go to SEVEN straight Championship games and FIVE Super Bowls in that sequence. I have had some thoughts on the Chiefs having regressed for some while and before the season opener I wrote ........
It is always dangerous to write off champions and the Chiefs have been the dominant force in the NFL in recent years and went close to an historic three-peat last season. However, their performances were not as good as results indicated and after their Super Bowl defeat I noted .....
Hard to believe just how bad the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes were last night and the closest comparison I can make is when Brazil lost 7-1 at home to Germany in the 2014 World Cup semi final, then, like now, it felt like the end of a dynasty.
These issues were coming for a long time and even at the end of the 2023 campaign, when they won the SB, I noted that superstar QB Patrick Mahomes had really only one ground option and 2-3 receivers, one of whom was a Tight End, albeit an elite one. They come into the new season even more handicapped, that TE, Travis Kelce, is soon to turn 36yo and seems busier in the media, with his podcast, television commitments and high profile relationship than on the football field and KC look very short in the receiver department. Their OL line appears suspect and will PM get the protection he needs and will the Chiefs have as much good fortune this time round ? After going 11-0 in regular season games decided by one score or less. There has to be some balancing out in that alone, superstar athletes do amazing things and PM is a GOAT contender but his win rate was 64% in close games prior to that run, which is great anyway, but equates to 7-4, not 11-0 and now he "owes" at least 4 wins as a starting point! They lost a top quality cornerback and safety and need rookie draftees to step up in those key positions and whilst, as I started by saying, it is dangerous to write them off, they need a lot to go their way again and you can only go to the well so often, before it comes up dry!
5-4 is not terrible and some of the potential issues I touched upon have been addressed, but they have been 7-2/7-2/9-0 at this stage in the last three seasons and I still feel that if nothing else, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have used up all their luck in close games for several seasons and not just this one.
I have a very soft spot for Broncos head coach Sean Payton who has long led the NFL in analytics and is a "young, modern coach" ...... just in an old body! Neither I, nor any clubgowi follower(s) who were with us at the time will ever forget his hugely emotional Super Bowl win with the New Orleans Saints, post Hurricane Katrina, to say nothing of the 28-1 odds!
Ahead of an early season meeting with the new Super Bowl champion Eagles I wrote ....The Broncos are 2-2 but are trending in the right direction in recent seasons under Sean Payton, who is an elite head coach and they have the all round game to trouble the Eagles. They have a very solid two pronged ground game through J.K Dobbins and rookie R.J Harvey, with the pair averaging over 143 yards per game, a top 7 ranked defense from 2024 which has upgraded and is currently ranked #3 and has recorded the most sacks in the NFL. If QB Bo Nix can stay error free today, I think that the Broncos will win.
Late last season I wrote....
Most of you know that I am keen on the Broncos, fast improving quarterback Bo Nix and especially head coach Sean Payton. They beat the Raiders 29-19 last week ............
Broncos are on a roll, playing really well defensively and Bo Nix and his offense are starting to play catch up and they have an elite head coach who is a veteran, but one with very modern ideas, what's not to like! In addition to those notes from the game in Kansas ( see foot of email) last week I updated with .....
The Broncos now host the Falcons who were worried out of the game by the Saints last week . Atlanta are decent, but will retain the #1 position in their division even if they lose today, they are also 0-2 in non Conference games like this. Denver needs to win to stay in control of their destiny and they are 3-0 in non-Conference games and no surprise that Sean Payton (see below) is better in games where there is less experience of playing opponents and data on them. The Broncos need it more, have been stronger in these games and look like the better team to my eyes.
They won 38-6 restricting the Falcons (averaging 23.8 points pg) to two field goals in the first half and scoreless in the second, with Nix becoming only the second QB in Broncos history to throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns.
Their season ended with their first playoff appearance in a decade and they will expect a repeat, or to build on that.
They won over the Eagles and are actually 6-0 since I wrote those notes. BTW, those Broncos background notes at the foot of this email are as good as anything you will ever read in a sports betting preview and highlight why clubgowi is a unique service and I appreciate that so many of you "get that" . Payton knows that today is massive, not just to keep the Chiefs at bay and to stay top of the division, but to lay down a marker for the years ahead. It can be argued that today is more important to KC given their 5-4 record and others will also say that they are good after a bye and all that is true, but in terms of a real sea change in the AFC West, a third home win in a row for the Broncos would be seismic. Thay have won the last two h2h here in Denver, but one was when the Chiefs were resting key players for the postseason, but the other was earnd and they played KC close at Arrowhead last season (losing by two points) and a strong case that they are stronger now and that KC has gone backwards, at least a little.
Denver Broncos + 3 points 2.27 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
The Chiefs have been starting games slowly and this has been an increasing and ongoing trend in recent years.....
In 2021 they averaged 7.2 first quarter points per game, ranking them joint #1.In 2022 that was down to 5.5 and it has fallen to 4.5 and 4.2 in the last two seasons and now, in 2025, they are ranked 30th of the 32 teams with just 2.9 ppg over the opening 15 minutes.
Good luck!
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
OK, the first surprise of the day is that I feel this game has upset potential.
The Broncos made my notes on Day 1 of this season and they went a lot like this....
In this I want to discuss the Broncos and more directly head coach Sean Payton, late last season ahead of a game with the resurgent and explosive Detroit Lions I wrote.....
Two weeks back I previewed Denver @ Houston .........
I have already made it clear that I like this Texans team and I expect them to be a big player in the next year or two. However, it is the Broncos who I feel are overpriced and who I want to discuss today and we will be looking at them in greater depth at some stage. For now, I want to touch upon the great job that Sean Payton has already started to do as head coach. The 59yo took two years out of the game after a 15 year tenure with the New Orleans Saints where he won a Super Bowl ( we were on very early at 25-1!) , seven NFC South titles and nine postseason appearances. He interviewed for four jobs and all four teams, including the Texans, wanted him, but he opted for Denver. The Broncos have huge potential and are a multi Super Bowl winning franchise, but not since 2015 and they have subsequently not even made the playoffs and were 5-12 last season which was the first for their mega rich owners and at the time I wrote ....
All change in Denver, they also have a new GM and owners in the Walton-Penner group, who paid $4.65bn for the franchise , which is small change for them, as they immediately become the richest owners in the NFL and arguably, in all of US Sport.
They sought a new head coach to better oversee their investment and the 59yo Payton was chosen. He is thought of as very much amongst the old guard when we have a lot of young coaches in the NFL nowadays and all seemingly analytics driven, that is very much the modern way and after lagging behind other sports for too long, the NFL has embraced statistics and is running like Derrick Henry with them. However, Payton has long led the way analytically and his Saints team and staff were years ahead of most of the NFL and I touched upon that in an article I wrote five years ago which bears rereading and is reproduced at the foot of this email . That article was light years, ok maybe 4-5 years, ahead of anything anyone else was writing about the NFL .
Upon arrival in Denver, Payton quickly picked up on the Bronco analytics department being "on another level entirely" to the one he installed in the Big Easy and he equated the data made available to him as:"I'm like that driver of a new car that still hasn't figured out how to get the seat warmers on!" Maybe small wonder that the Broncos started 1-5 and they were 28-7 down in the win and one of those defeats was 70-20 to the Dolphins! However, in the last of those defeats they played the Super Bowl champion Chiefs close and two weeks later beat them by 15 points in the second of what is now five straight wins (four against winning teams) and things have clearly clicked. I saw a lengthy interview with Payton before the second Chiefs game and remember, his team were 2-5 at the time, had just lost to KC and another game by 50 points (!) weeks earlier and yet, he was confident. Spoke openly and seamlessly about a lot of things you rarely hear, advanced analytics in game planning, what was coming in the future (AI), "sequencing", soft tissue data, distance each player travelled in PRACTICE whether that was too much or too little and he speaks about the game and views it like a 29 yo with a statistical PhD looking for a job in the NFL, but also with 40 years of college and NFL experience! The Broncos have a whole wing at the training complex dedicated to analytics and Payton says he goes there daily to ask for specific data or to enquire what they have available and all these fine margins add up and can make the difference in close games and three of those five Denver wins have come by a combined five points. The Texans last 7 games have been decided by 3-5-3-3-3-7-2 points, this seems almost certain to be close and I take Payton to find a way to edge it.
It was the Texans who edged it 22-17 but Denver were unlucky IMO and I was impressed by both teams and the Broncos got back on track last week, with a 24-7 win in LA , the Broncos' defense dominated the game, holding the Chargers to 0-for-12 on 3rd down and 1-of-6 on 4th down with two turnovers.
The Broncos finished 8-9 and I think that was pretty decent in Payton's first season, he is a superstar head coach IMO, but had a lot to sort out including what had been a franchise QB, who I suspect SP did not want and who by the time the change in coach came, did not want to be in Denver either, it was an ill fated experiment for Wilson and a very expensive one for the Broncos, but they have now moved on. Anyway, that first season saw four performances laden heavy with promise for the future, wins over the Chiefs, Bills on the road, Browns heavily and that aforementioned game with the Texans, with that quartet all 10-11 game winners and the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl, there was also a win over the Packers and four of those five made it to the Divisional playoff (quarter finals if you like).
Wilson has now departed and starting today will be confident rookie QB Bo Nix, who beat out both Zach Wilson and Jarret Stidham for the job. Three things about that, he is Payton's own man, the head coach doesn't make many mistakes with things like this and Nix is vastly experienced and as unlike a traditional rookie QB as it is possible to be.
Nix had a long journey to the league, playing five seasons of college football before entering the draft to make him one of the oldest starting rookie quarterbacks in NFL history.He spent his first three seasons as a starter at Auburn from 2019-21 before taking his talents to Oregon in the transfer portal. He hit another gear with the Ducks, tallying 8,101 passing yards and 74 touchdowns over his final two seasons.As a super senior, Nix threw for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns to just three interceptions, earning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and solidifying his place as an NFL prospect in the process.Now, he'll be the first rookie quarterback to start Week 1 for the Broncos since John Elway. Nix will be 24 years and 195 days old on his Week 1 NFL debut, making him the fifth-oldest rookie quarterback to start a season opener in league history. Nix was also made a team captain, which further illustrates how far he has further developed at training camp with the Broncos and how the franchise and fellow players already rate and value him.
I feel we have to monitor Denver closely, Payton
There is a lot of good stuff in those notes and in my article at the foot of this email.
The Broncos are coming off a big defeat (41-10) at the Ravens last week, but I am expecting a reaction today and that result was flattering in the extreme to the Ravens IMO. Denver were the better team in the first half and Bo Nix did not look outmatched in comparison to his Ravens counterpart Lamar Jackson who is a two time NFL MVP winner and currently favourite to win a third. Two bad turnovers cost them dear and the Ravens ran away with things in the second half but positives for the Broncos and they and Nix are "getting there". He has all the parts to become an elite QB, he can run and pass and confidence is growing and he has the perfect head coach in Payton. Denver went into that game 5-3 with the three losses all coming by a touchdown or less and they should have been 6-2 or better.
We have a different dynamic today as the Broncos and Chiefs are in the same division and play each other twice every season. Not so different as KC had won 15 straight before Payton arrived, but I touched upon the two meetings last season above, the first was closer than 11 points suggests (defense played great,Russell Wilson had a nightmare!) and a few weeks later the Broncos got the monkey off their backs with a 24-9 win. It had been trending that way as the last four Chiefs wins in the series came by an average of six points and now Payton, the Broncos and players know they can beat their biggest rival.
The Chiefs are an odd one, they have been the dominant force in the NFL ever since Patrick Mahomes arrived and are looking to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. When you read that and then see that they are 8-0 and the only unbeaten team in the NFL, you fear for any opponent. However, and you knew that however was coming! None of those wins came by more than 13 points and six by a TD or less and they have been in trouble multiple times and could easily be 5-3. If such a thing exists, I would say they were a "poor" 8-0 team! Of course, they are the Chiefs, with a GOAT contender as QB and top of the heap head coach in Andy Reid and the same in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, so they will always get the job done more often than not, but I am going to say that I suspect they have regressed from last year, which would get me laughed out of KC!
They have the 10th rated offense, also 10th with the pass and 14th at running the ball and that is not where you would expect an 8-0 team to be. They have been unbelievable on third downs with the best conversion rate in the NFL, 6% more than the third best team which, believe me is insane, but it is 4% more than the best team managed in 2023, 10% more than the Chiefs did and a respective 3% and 5% compared to 2022 and KC won the Super Bowl both seasons, those numbers are simply not sustainable. It is like a striker scoring 20 goals from a 8.0 xG ,something has to give. I will not even mention what their 3rd down conversion rate is for the last three games as that is even more crazy, but they have needed to try and do it more and more 14,16,18 times in that trio and again, something has to give and you can only go to the well so often! In the last game, Mahomes was 11 for 11 on his first attempts passing on 3rd down, including completing the Chiefs three longest passes from scrimmage, come on! Let's get real!
They are in trouble and get out of it time after time, that is what elite quarterbacks do regularly and when they "have to", but not a dozen times per game!
The Chiefs lost 4 of 6 from this week until Christmas last year, being 7-2 going into that sequence of games and another drop off would not surprise me and feels like it is coming. Also, only one team has gone better than 8-0 to start a season since 2015 and four of the last five 8-0 teams have lost their 9th game.
I will go with ............
3 units Denver Broncos + 6 points @ 2.27 Pinnacle/Vegas Line, but would not rule out the upset road win and let's keep a close eye on both teams in the coming weeks.
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