It's playoff time in the EFL .....
May 07, 2026
Championship playoffs 2025/26:
| 2025/26 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Coventry City | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 45 | +52 | 95 | WWWX | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 51 | 19 | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 26 | ||
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80 | 47 | +33 | 84 | WXOW | 23 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 43 | 17 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | ||
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | +15 | 83 | WXWW | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 25 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 31 | 24 | ||
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82 | 56 | +26 | 80 | WXXW | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 19 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 37 | ||
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72 | 47 | +25 | 80 | XWWX | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 38 | 29 | ||
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70 | 66 | +4 | 73 | WLXX | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 32 | ||
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 71 | XLWW | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 37 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 28 | ||
Last 20 seasons: The third placed team has won nine times , 4th on six occasions, 5th has prevailed four times, the team finishing in sixth just once and not for the last 15 seasons. Hull City are in the "jinx" position.
City also only confirmed their top 6 placing on the final day, which is usually a negative, the other three teams were already guaranteed top 6 and were actually still in contention for an automatic promotion spot.
In terms of h2h round robin games between the four teams this season): Hull City 12 points (4-0-2), Millwall 10 points (3-1-2), Middlesbrough 10 points (3-1-2) and Southampton a dismal 2 points (0-2-4).
Points picked up over the second half of the season/ last 10 games: Southampton 49 points (+18) ,Millwall 47 (+11), Middlesbrough 37 (-6) and Hull City 35 (-3) . Figures in parenthesis are the difference between the second 23 and first 23 games. The Saints and Lions numbers are elite and automatic promotion level. Last 10 games saw Southampton step on the gas big time with 26 points, Millwall 18, Hull 13 and Boro just 11. Saints also took that form into the FA Cup where they reached the last four and took Manchester City all the way in the Wembley semi final.
XP for the season sees Boro on 82 points, Saints with 78, Millwall 66 and City on 53, that is an average from several stat sites, leaving out the "extremes",one table has the Tigers on just 38 points and all give them a big negative xGD and their real goal difference (+4), is way below what we would expect of a top 6 side. Since 2018 five teams have come into the postseason with a single digit GD, all between +4 and +9 and all five lost at the (first) semi final stage.
Boro and Saints also came out top 2 ( above both Coventry and Ipswich ) for away xP.
Two away games left to play!
I have spent a bit of time saying Hull, the Tigers, look below the quality of the others, but their h2h record was good and we have effectively two "away" games left to play and they beat the other three teams on the road this season. All four have decent away records, but Saints fell out of the locks, yet still scored 44 road goals (1.913 per game). Only two of the last 32 promoted teams had scored more and the only playoff team to score 40 away goals since 2013 was Brentford with exactly 40 who were very comfortable postseason winners in 2020/21.
Boro and Saints look like the two stronger teams, but face each other. Hull have a lot of "negatives" to overcome. The two Hull-Millwall games both finished 1-3 with the away side winning in each, but the game in SE London came back in December when the Lions were decimated by injuries, with 15 first teamers absent and no midfielders available and only able to use three subs. When they
met again in March, only five Millwall players from the first game featured, they used five subs and were much closer to full strength.
With such a huge prize at stake the first leg semi final games tend to be close , very tense affairs and many teams make avoiding defeat in the opener a priority and of course, we do have the "better" team on the road. That is borne out by how few semi final first leg home winners there are, only 10 in those last 20 seasons, which is 40 games, a miserly 25%, but of real interest is the fact that 27 (67.5 %) were level after 45 minutes and this is something and a bet that has served us very well indeed. So I would not try to put any of you betting the HT draw in either game.
This has been a season of..........the rest of this post is restricted to subscribers to the clubgowi newsletter, but the content above, especially that in blue type, should give you something to think about and help if you are planning to bet.
Good luck!
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