I was at the Gtech yesterday and even when Brentford trailed 1-0 at half time, they never felt likely to lose and eventually won 3-1. Scores from elsewhere also saw Forest, Villa and Man City all record big home wins , with Palace and Brighton sharing the spoils in a 0-0 draw. That all backed up my thinking that there is a heavy home bias this season and looking at the basic numbers it is hard to get away from that school of thought. 

 

Only three teams (Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham) have won more than two away games and 13 teams have won just one or fewer road games. BTW, Spurs are the only EPL side to have taken more points away from home than in their own stadium and significantly so ( a respective 5 and 13 points).

 

Through 11 rounds, home wins are running at 52.73% and at the same stage in 2024/25 were 44.55% and finished the season at 40.79%. After 11 rounds in 2023/24 home wins were 43.64%.

 

EPL home wins have not hit 50% for the full season since 2009/10 and across the last decade they have averaged 45.5%. I think it is far too early to say that the nature of the EPL has changed and leagues, as regular readers know, have a habit of reverting to type, so it is highly likely that we will see a levelling off of these numbers at some stage. For the 38 rounds to come in at that 45.5% average, for example, they would have to play out at 42.59% from this point on, a more than 10% drop off, effectively losing one home win per round.Which would be good for the game and, as long as they don't come at the Gtech, is fine by me!

 

Good luck!