2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Bayern München	33	24	7	2	95	32	+63	79	WXWW	17	14	2	1	53	16	16	10	5	1	42	16
	2		Bayer Leverkusen	33	19	11	3	70	41	+29	68	LXWX	17	10	4	3	36	22	16	9	7	0	34	19
	3		Eintracht Frankfurt	33	16	9	8	65	45	+20	57	XXWO	17	10	4	3	41	22	16	6	5	5	24	23
	4		SC Freiburg	33	16	7	10	48	50	-2	55	WXWW	16	9	3	4	31	23	17	7	4	6	17	27
	5		Borussia Dortmund	33	16	6	11	68	51	+17	54	WWWW	16	10	3	3	41	19	17	6	3	8	27	32
	6		FSV Mainz 05	33	14	9	10	53	41	+12	51	WXLX	16	6	7	3	22	16	17	8	2	7	31	25
	7		RB Leipzig	33	13	12	8	51	45	+6	51	OXLX	16	8	6	2	31	20	17	5	6	6	20	25
	8		SV Werder Bremen	33	13	9	11	50	56	-6	48	OXOW	17	5	6	6	21	26	16	8	3	5	29	30
	9		VfB Stuttgart	33	13	8	12	61	51	+10	47	WWLX	17	7	2	8	35	27	16	6	6	4	26	24
	10		Borussia Mönchengladbach	33	13	6	14	55	56	-1	45	LXLL	16	7	3	6	29	25	17	6	3	8	26	31
	11		FC Augsburg	33	11	10	12	34	49	-15	43	LLLO	16	6	5	5	17	18	17	5	5	7	17	31
	12		VfL Wolfsburg	33	10	10	13	55	54	+1	40	XLLX	17	3	7	7	27	30	16	7	3	6	28	24
	13		1.FC Union Berlin	33	9	11	13	34	49	-15	38	LXXX	17	5	7	5	19	22	16	4	4	8	15	27
	14		St.Pauli	33	8	8	17	28	39	-11	32	XLOX	16	3	5	8	10	17	17	5	3	9	18	22
	15		TSG Hoffenheim	33	7	11	15	46	64	-18	32	XXLL	16	4	5	7	25	32	17	3	6	8	21	32
	16		1.FC Heidenheim	33	8	5	20	36	60	-24	29	WOWL	16	3	2	11	12	29	17	5	3	9	24	31
	17		Holstein Kiel	33	6	7	20	49	77	-28	25	LWWX	17	4	2	11	24	41	16	2	5	9	25	36
	18		VfL Bochum	33	4	8	21	30	68	-38	20	LOXL	17	3	4	10	16	33	16	1	4	11	14	35

 

Final round of the season............

 

Bayern are champions.

 

Leverkusen are runners up.

 

Bochum and Kiel are relegated.

 

The 16th placed team will play in a two legged playoff with the team finishing third in 2.Bundesliga.

 

Top 4 qualify for the Champions League.

 

5th for the Europa League.

 

6th for the Conference league.

 

Winner of the DFB -Pokal ( Bielefeld-Stuttgart) will also qualify for the Europa League and cannot influence what is at stake in the league.

 

 

Saturday, 17 May 2025
34	Borussia Mönchengladbach		-	VfL Wolfsburg
34	Borussia Dortmund		-	Holstein Kiel
34	SC Freiburg		-	Eintracht Frankfurt
34	St.Pauli		-	VfL Bochum
34	FSV Mainz 05		-	Bayer Leverkusen
34	FC Augsburg		-	1.FC Union Berlin
34	TSG Hoffenheim		-	Bayern München
34	1.FC Heidenheim		-	SV Werder Bremen
34	RB Leipzig		-	VfB Stuttgart

I am going to say a few words about each of the nine games.

 

This is the highest scoring amongst the Big 5 European leagues, which is almost always the case and the final day usually sees plenty of goals. This day last season saw ALL nine games produce 3+ goals and 7 had 4+ .

 

BMG- Wolfsburg is a "friendly" and the two are joint highest goalscorers in the bottom half of the table and have conceded, along with Bremen the most outside of the bottom four. The last 10 BMG games have averaged 4.1 goals and this fixture usually sees 4+ goals ( 6 times in last 7 h2h meetings) and surely this will be ranking high for entertainment value today.

 

Dortmund had a great 4-2 win at Leverkusen last weekend ..........

 

They (Borussia) have scored 3-4-2-3-3-4 goals in their last six Bundesliga outings and played three teams above them in the table in that sequence of games and are now just a point off 4th and a return to Champions League football, participation in which they almost consider compulsory and theirs by right! A trip to Leverkusen might not be first choice for a must win game, but the hosts are guaranteed second place regardless of result and are going through the motions a bit, having won just once in four starts and having lost to a lower league team in the DFB-Pokal semi final last month. They have had such a wonderful 30 months or so, that it must be hard to pick themselves up now with nothing at stake and also dealing with disappointment at not winning anything, when they came into the campaign with very big plans.  Also, Borussia scores for fun in this series, 15 goals in their last six visits to the BayArena and 29 in ten h2h meetings in Dortmund. This shouts two goals + for the visitors, but odds are much higher and bigger for the away win which is what they need and will be my confident call. 

 

It was not enough to take 4th place as Freiburg came from behind to beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 on the road and also relegated the hosts, which I am sure was well received! Dortmund need to win again and hope that the 4th placed team slips up ( see below) and even if things do not go well, it will be party time in Dortmund, as it is the final day and anyway, it always is! They play Kiel who are down, but have been a wonderful addition to the Bundesliga and I for one will miss them and will never forget the goals they scored in Munich, which was a bit of a season highlight. This feels like a great game for the visitors and they can enjoy a fantastic day out and play their part in a high scoring encounter and we know they have goals in them, 49 scored is 13+ more than five other teams and almost unheard of for a relegated side. I hope they return soon!

 

Leverkusen are guaranteed second and also to lose head coach Xabi Alonso and star player Florian Wirtz who, it appears, will be gracing the EPL next season, so, for me, it will be more about enjoying the occasion/ avoiding injury today than the result and I doubt they can match the motivation of Mainz, who are playing for a European spot. Having said that, Mainz concern me, they have not finished top 7 since 2015-16 and have won just 6 of 16 home games and exactly 6 is how many wins as host they posted in each of the last two seasons, Also, since the turn of the year, they are winless in five starts versus teams currently top 5 and might not have to win, as they just need to equal or better Leipzig's result. So for all those reasons, I am swerving the game.

 

Freiburg hosts Frankfurt and this game and the one in Dortmund are where the real interest lies in this round....

 

Frankfurt will secure a top-four finish if:

• They avoid defeat in Freiburg
• Dortmund fail to win
• They lose by a one-goal margin and Dortmund win by only a one-goal margin

Freiburg will secure a top-four finish if:

• They beat Frankfurt
• They draw and Dortmund fail to win
• Dortmund lose

Surely both Freiburg and Frankfurt think that Dortmund will win and probably big, by at least 2 goals and I agree and really think we are in for a shoot out there. It feels like Freiburg needs the win and Frankfurt will look to keep things tight for as long as possible. The hosts have been involved in some recent goal fests.....

 

5-Mar-2025	BL (26)	FSV Mainz 05	2-2	SC Freiburg
30-Mar-2025	BL (27)	SC Freiburg	1-2	1.FC Union Berlin
05-Apr-2025	BL (28)	SC Freiburg	1-4	Borussia Dortmund
12-Apr-2025	BL (29)	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1-2	SC Freiburg
19-Apr-2025	BL (30)	SC Freiburg	3-2	TSG Hoffenheim
26-Apr-2025	BL (31)	VfL Wolfsburg	0-1	SC Freiburg
04-May-2025	BL (32)	SC Freiburg	2-2	Bayer Leverkusen
10-May-2025	BL (33)	Holstein Kiel	1-2	SC Freiburg

 

Frankfurt have drawn three of their last four starts and have not won on the road against a team currently in the top half of the table since January LAST YEAR! I find that a bit hard to understand as they have a lot of pace and should be ideally set up to play on the road. However, Freiburg have a negative goal difference and, have you ever seen a team get into the Champions League with one of those? It is a good and easy guide to a team's true underlying form, I discuss it a couple of times per season and I am going to heed my own advice and treat them with caution. EF won the reverse fixture 4-1, are unbeaten in four visits to this stadium and the hosts have conceded 2+ goals, 10 total in their last four home starts. Also XP suggests that Frankfurt are 8 points better and xGF gives them 2.13 goals per game, second only to champions Bayern.

 

Augsburg- Union Berlin is another "friendly" but there is a problem in that the visitors do not score many on the road and neither do the hosts at home and they also look to have "given up" on this season now and lost their last two game heavily, 3-1 at home to relegated Kiel and 4-0 away to Stuttgart who have been inconsistent in recent weeks. The hosts are unbeaten in nine fairly low scoring h2h games and TBH, this feels like the least interesting game of the weekend for any neutrals, so, nein danke!

 

 

Hoffenheim will be safe (avoid playoff) if:

• They get a point or more

Heidenheim will be safe (avoid playoff) if:

• They win and Hoffenheim lose in a way that overturns the six-goal difference (in reality, seven given TSG's superior goals scored total, unless Heidenheim were to score 10 themselves)

As far fetched as overcoming that goal difference sounds, I wonder if Heidenhein fancy this a little bit, first up, nothing to lose and they are playing Bremen for whom this is basically a friendly and who struggle defensively at times and Hoffenhein are hosting Bayern and what if the champions decided to turn up ? Bayern won the reverse fixture 5-0 and have a 6-0 win here in Hoffenheim in recent memory and actually lost here 4-2 last season, but we know the thinking of those old Bayern players who are now on the board/advisory capacity and sit in the stands plotting yet another Bundesliga title win like the witches in Macbeth, they have memories like elephants and all slights have to be avenged, so that loss will not have been forgotten!

 

Heidenheim are in good form with seven points and four goals without reply in their last three starts, including a 3-0 win at Union Berlin 7 days ago. Something similar has to be their target today and they can take confidence from their h2h record, since promotion they have 7 points and 9 goals from the three meetings with Bremen and I just get the feeling that this all has a little way to run, or might have early doors.

 

Having said that, Hoffenheim are scoring (and conceding) for fun.....

 

12-Apr-2025	BL (29)	TSG Hoffenheim	2-0	FSV Mainz 05
19-Apr-2025	BL (30)	SC Freiburg	3-2	TSG Hoffenheim
26-Apr-2025	BL (31)	TSG Hoffenheim	2-3	Borussia Dortmund
03-May-2025	BL (32)	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4-4	TSG Hoffenheim
09-May-2025	BL (33)	VfL Wolfsburg	2-2	TSG Hoffenheim

 

and have served us well in the last three of those. They have also scored 9 goals in their last four home games with Bayern and might ultimately need a goal or two today. They certainly do not look capable of "playing safe" and that is not their style anyway, with home games averaging 3.56 (1.56-2.0) goals this season.

 

 

The hosts are not "officially" safe, but we are talking about a 13 goal swing with Heidenheim and playing relegated Bochum, that is not going to happen. Also, rather incredibly, the hosts have the second best defensive record in the Bundesliga, with only Bayern conceding fewer goals and that is only because the champions have so much of the ball. Of course, you know what is coming next given St Pauli's position and that is that they do not score many, 28 is the fewest in the Bundesliga. To pick up 32 points from so few goals is unusual and that will need to be addressed next season.

 

Bochum had a very emotional day last week, with relegation confirmed and saying goodbye to two club legends who are playing their final season and their fans were superb and gave relentless support, before , during and after the game. They might relax now and turn it on and some recent performances have been better than results. I am hoping these two clubs play more to expected levels today, St Pauli should have scored 11 more and conceded an additional 13 and Bochum an extra 15 and conceded 5 more than that already grim total of 68 goals against.

 

 

Stuttgart are not the first team and will not be the last to struggle with Champions League and domestic football, after a fantastic 23/24 which saw them finish second. They have "lost" some 26 points and 29 goals compared to last season and are 9th, but xP places them 5th (13 points ahead of Leipzig) and their goal difference is 7th best. They are also in the DFB-Pokal final in Berlin next week, when they play third (soon to be second) tier Arminia Bielefeld for not just the silverware, but a place in the Europa League and that is both a priority and would salvage a campaign for which they doubtless had big dreams. All focus should be on that, but they have finally posted back to back league wins for the first time since January and might want to carry that momentum to the capital. They have also already beaten Leipzig twice this season, both in Stuttgart 2-1 in the league and 3-1 in the cup semi final early last month.

 

RBL need to better Mainz's result to finish 6th, but there is a school of thought, mine actually(!), which says they might be better off without Conference League football and going all out for a return to the top 4 next season without the distraction of the third ranked European competition. Also, their numbers and not just xP have been pretty poor all season and they have played at lower midtable level and should have conceded an additional 16 goals, circa 0.5 per game! I do not know if Stuttgart will rotate their squad, but they have been "talking the talk" in the build up and said they wanted a performance and to reach 50 points.

 

I kind of understand the odds, given what is at stake, but we are talking about a "reward" which RBL might be better off without and almost everything suggests that Stuttgart are the better team. Since week 16, which is 17 games (half a season), Leipzig have collected 21 points which is 12th/13th place level and that is where xP suggests they should be.

 

Good luck!