What we are looking to achieve ...........
Aug 30, 2025
A couple of posts on the website today which highlight what we are trying to achieve with the clubgowi daily newsletter , write about the day in question, but also very much with the future in mind, maybe even more so. The notes I wrote on Serie A four weeks ago are a perfect example and have given a fantastic starting point for analysing the 40+ games played subsequently and many, many potential winners!
Brazil Serie A:
| 2025 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Flamengo | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 44 | 9 | +35 | 46 | WWWX | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | ||
| 2 | Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | +12 | 42 | WWWX | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | ||
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 15 | +19 | 41 | WXLW | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 6 | ||
| 4 | Bahia | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 36 | WWXO | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | ||
| 5 | Botafogo | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 32 | WLWL | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 4 | ||
| 6 | Mirassol | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 32 | WXLW | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | ||
| 7 | São Paulo | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 32 | WXWW | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 13 | ||
| 8 | Red Bull Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 | WLLL | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 9 | Fluminense | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 27 | LWXW | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 19 | ||
| 10 | Ceará | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 19 | +0 | 26 | OWLX | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | ||
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 | WLLX | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | ||
| 12 | Atlético-MG | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 24 | LLXW | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 15 | ||
| 13 | Internacional | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 24 | LLWL | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | ||
| 14 | Grêmio | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 24 | OWLL | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | ||
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 21 | LLWW | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 17 | ||
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 19 | LLWX | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 17 | ||
| 17 | Vitória | 21 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 19 | LXLX | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | ||
| 18 | Juventude | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 18 | LWXW | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 29 | ||
| 19 | Fortaleza | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 15 | LLLX | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | ||
| 20 | Sport Recife | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 10 | LXWO | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 17 | ||
This is a little hard to believe, but on August 2nd, so just 27 days ago I wrote ....
Serie A is a low scoring league and we normally expect a shade under 2.45 goals on average, but it is currently running at 2.25 and that can be partly explained I feel by the stop/start nature of play this year due to the international breaks and FIFA Club World Cup. We should see an increase now and games will have to produce at the rate of 2.58 , a third of a goal increase, to come in at circa 2.44. Leagues do tend to revert to the mean , so it is not wrong for us to expect an upturn.
The average is already up to 2.42 per game and the 42 games played subsequently have produced 129 goals at the rate of over 3.07. That is why I monitor these numbers, as leagues have a habit of largely returning to the mean season after season and if totals or home /away wins are especially high or low, there is almost always a levelling out. Something to watch out for!
Ceará- Juventude
Juventude have featured twice for us and most recently in a 2-0 win over Vasco da Gama and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email and with Corinthians, who are also on my list for today are referenced. They have played once subsequently, losing 3-1 at home to defending champions Botafogo, but led in that and were very competitive until conceding two late goals. They have definitely upped their level and goal threat , scoring 8 goals in their last 5 starts, after only 10 in their first 15 and whilst it is a long way up to Fortaleza (7,000km round trip) to play Ceará, the visitors can travel with confidence gained from four straight very good performances.
2 units both teams to score @ 2.16 asian line.
Good luck!
Brazil Serie A: Juventude- Vasco da Gama (written August 20th)
Ahead of Juventude's most recent home game I wrote ....
Today we have Juventude -Corinthians
Juventude were promoted in 2020, finished 16th the next season with 11 wins, 9 at home, relegated the following season. They were promoted again in 2023 and finished 15th last season, with 11 wins , 8 coming here in Caxias do Sul. So they know all too well what they and any minor club needs to do to survive in this most brutal of leagues, where teams play a relentless schedule, and that is to make the very most of home advantage. The hosts sit 19th this morning 7 points from safety but with a game or two in hand on most teams.
Corinthians are not great travellers and ahead of a trip up to the NE of the country to play Ceará last month I touched upon that ....
Corinthians are coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Bragantino where they created 2.2 xG and won most statistical categories and that seems fairly typical, as not a lot of luck has fallen their way. They are 0-3-3 on the road too, with a 3-10 goal difference which gives cause for concern and they had very similar issues last season, opening 1-3-11 in away games (7-24 GD), before winning their last four on the road. It is a tough schedule for the visitors, they played a "derby" game on Sunday, could only do light prep work on Monday, will be training today and then making the flight to Fortaleza, where it will be 13-14 degrees hotter in the evening/overnight , which will involve a 6-7 hour transit time.
They actually won that, but lost at Sao Paulo just three days later in their next away start which was hardly surprising, given the exertions of such a long trip and quick turnaround. But in two road games subsequently they have drawn 1-1 at champions Botafogo and won 2-0 at Palmeiras and I spoke above about how good they are and have been. So it does feel like Corinthians have turned a corner and whilst their need is not as great as Juventude's , a win today would take them up four places and into the Copa Libertadores "discussion". Last five h2h meetings have seen BTS in four, including in the three most recent, all played in 2024 .
Juventude won 2-1 and have played just once subsequently, drawing 2-2 away at Victoria and now they host another bottom 7 team in Vasco da Gama.....
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 | LLXX | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | ||
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 21 | LWWX | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | ||
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 24 | +1 | 19 | WXLX | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 15 | ||
| 17 | Vitória | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 | XLXX | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | ||
| 18 | Juventude | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 38 | -23 | 15 | XWLL | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 29 | ||
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 15 | LLXL | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | ||
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 10 | XWOX | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
The visitors have also featured in my notes a couple of times recently and have played their part in the goals upturn that I have been focussing on and they have actually scored 12 in their last four starts, conceding five and they are coming off a shock, in terms of margin of victory, 6-0 win at Santos. It is hard to know quite what to make of that, Vasco did not create what you would normally consider was enough to score 4-5 goals, let alone six, everything they touched went in and five goals came in a 16 minute period around the hour mark. Both teams hit the woodwork and Santos had a goal and penalty ruled out for narrow offside decisions, but the hosts defending was criminal and not up to even 3rd tier standard. The strange thing is that Santos had won their previous two starts, including away to top 3 side Cruzeiro. It is over 13 months since Vasco won b2b away games and we "know" that Juventude are solid at home and will put up far more resistance than Santos. We might well see goals again and the "over" is tempting, but I like the hosts off level ball and they were worthy 2-0 winners in this fixture last season giving Vasco very few chances.
1.75 units Juventude level ball 2.30 asian line.
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