Italy Serie A ......
Oct 31, 2026
I have been on fire in Serie A this week, going 4 from 4 at odds of between 2.12 and 3.75 and below you can read part of my weekend notes for the upcoming Italian fixtures.....
Italy Serie A:
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Inter | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 25 | WWWW | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 25 | WWWW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | ||
| 3 | Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 | WXWO | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | ||
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 | WWWO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | ||
| 5 | Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 | LWWX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | ||
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 17 | WXWL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | ||
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 | WXLW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | ||
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 | LWLX | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | ||
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 13 | LWWW | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||
Udinese - AS Roma
Frosinone - Torino
Como - Venezia
Midweek notes on Roma, Torino and Como at the foot of this email.
Roma won 4-2 and Como 3-1 and the goals, which I said we should expect and Italy Serie A so desperately needed, have continued to flow, with games averaging 3.15 goals, up 0.89 pg from this stage last season.
ASR are up to 3rd and goals are coming easily and the Gian Gasperini influence has kicked in big time. The Wolves have scored in 26 games in which they have kept 10 men on the pitch, scoring 2+ in 21 , including 14 of the last 15. Udinese are the exact opposite, they have not scored in seven halves of football, or in three home games, losing the last four as hosts, infact , they have not won a league home game since May 2nd and have failed to score in 7/10 starts in this stadium. Roma have won 15 of the last 20 h2h meetings and Gasperini's former club were unbeaten in 14 games with Udinese.
Como now host the basement club and Venezia have lost 8 of 9 starts, but have scored in four h2h meetings and have scored in 3 of 5 away starts. They were promoted last season as champions and top scorers, with 33 road goals and xGF this season, wait for it, suggests they should have scored an additional 10 goals (!), 8th best in Serie A. Como have won 7 of 10 starts with BTS in six of those and a repeat is competitively priced.
Frosinone were promoted along with Venezia and were equally impressive last season with 2.13 points and 2.0 goals per game. The difference with them is that they have continued in a similar vein and have been the Serie A surprise package and a very fun one! With 1.89 points and 2.44 goals per game. They have become a stable project and attractive investment option in recent seasons and New York based investment fund Clara Vista bought 80% of the club in the summer, with long term owner Maurizio Stirpe retaining 20% and the Presidency for two years. After being a big net selling club for many years they sold no one they wanted to keep this off season and spent 30+ m € well, increasing already strong offensive options. Clara Vista are also one of the main investors in Ipswich Town of the EPL. They are unlikely to ever become Como level spenders, but an interesting project and when a well run/coached club is playing the right way and spending money intelligently, it is always worthy of note and Serie A is not quite the cartel of old, when it was almost impossible for outsiders to gatecrash the party.
2.25 units Como to win and both teams to score @ 2.55 asian line.
Good luck!
Italy Serie A: (written Tuesday October 27th)
Torino - Como
Back in February I noted .....
Coma are an increasingly big player in Italy and the next step for them is some silverware and a European spot. They have lost just once in nine, with 6 wins and a 21-5 goal difference.
I wrote about all the potential and ambition at Como a couple of times last season .....
It was always going to be a bit of a learning curve for Como back in the top flight for the first time in 21 seasons and with a heck of a roller coaster ride in the interim years. But they must be (fairly) pleased with 13th place and 28 points and their last two games have seen them beat Fiorentina on the road and (then) league leaders Napoli on home soil. However, as good as that reads, they are not your typical small town club just pleased to make up the Serie A numbers and they have much bigger ambitions and in the early season I noted......
Como were playing Serie D football in 2017 after being reformed and were promoted to the top flight last season. They might only have two points on board, but performances have been increasingly strong and they are hugely ambitious. They have very wealthy owners and are not your typical "small" newly promoted team, Cesc Fabregas is head coach, Dennis Wise and Thierry Henry are also involved with the club and in addition to signing a host of talented youngsters this summer, they also added Raphael Varane, Sergi Roberto, Pepe Reina (now 42yo) , Alberton Moreno and Andrea Belotti who bring huge experience and almost all of it with some of Europe's biggest clubs.
Those owners are the richest men in Italy and the playing side is run by Fabregas and Osian Roberts who has been described as the most influential man in Welsh football and who is very well respected. The club spent 70-80m€ in January and an awful lot more on loan and signing fees and of course, salaries. Five of those newbies featured in the win over Napoli .
They are a club we will be following closely in the coming season or two.
Como finished 10th last season which was fantastic, they are 19 points better off than at this stage 12 months ago. They spent fairly heavily again this summer, a net 100m€ and strengthened again in January and this is a team and club only heading in one direction!
They finished 4th last season which was the quantum leap forward everyone connected with the club were looking for and with such wealthy owners and Fabregas and Roberts still at the club, they look genuine long term big players especially with so many of the traditional name teams not as influential on the wider European stage. They were second top scorers last season and have carried that offensive threat into the Champions League with 10 goals in three games (two wins) after strengthening their squad in the summer ahead of the increased number of games. That is a solid start to life in Europe and they will be looking to progress to and beyond a knockout stage round or two, but that is a learning curve and perhaps just as important is another top 4 league finish and just to continue to cement their standing in Serie A. They have won the last three h2h meetings with Torino, doing the double last year by a combined 11-1, winning 5-1 in this stadium 11 months ago. Como are 5th this morning, but xGF suggests they should have scored four more goals, they are looking for a 4th straight win, the previous three all by 2+ goals and have a great chance to kick on now leading up to the next international break. Away win.
2.25 units Como -1 ball @ 2.12 asian line.
AS Roma - Cagliari
Roma played away to Torino last month ....
Torino hosted Milan on opening day and lost 2-1 and those notes can be read in this post on the clubgowi website. All their three Serie A games have finished with the same 2-1 scoreline, two defeats and a win at Fiorentina last time out. Infact, BTS and 3+ goals would have been a winner in their last six league outings. In that original article I spoke about the need for more goals and entertainment in Italian football and games so far are averaging 2.92 goals, which is a shade under half a goal per game up on last season.
Roma arrive in second place, which they will be pleased with, a point behind Lazio, which they will not be as happy about! They are almost certainly going to need to preserve their 100% record to go top, as Inter are level on points and very short odds to win at home today. Roma have scored ten goals so far and only conceded one, but had a tough Champions League game in Turkey ( 1-1 draw with Fenerbahce) last Thursday, so a quick turnaround and they host Inter this coming weekend, so will have one eye on that too. Roma are looking for a 5th win in six h2h visits to Torino and that feels likely.
Roma won 2-0. They are third this morning and could move top with the win, they also have four points from three Champions League games, it should be more as they led Real Madrid 3-1 late, before losing 4-3, but they are heading in the right direction and early last season I wrote ......
Roma are now coached by Gian Piero Gasperini, the sandwich man(look it up) !
He was finally tempted away from Atalanta after a decade of unprecedented success for the club, including winning the 2023/24 Europa League, so he knows how to get the job done and, on a personal level, two coach of the year awards. Roma have gone very deep in European competition four times in recent years, winning the Conference league in 2022 and finishing runner up in the Europa League a year later (semi final stage in 2021 and 2024). They are a club with an illustrious history, but that Conference League success aside, they have not won anything since 2008 and have not qualified for the Champions League since 2017/18. I guess that will be his remit, tp bring CL football to the club next season, to do that he will need to win the Europa League or finish top 4 , or both.
He has a good squad to start with and one which ended last season on fire, collecting a whopping 46 points (14-4-1) in the second half of the campaign, which equates to 92 over the full season and would have seen them win the title by 10 points, instead of finishing 5th after a poor start to the season. GPG will have a much bigger budget to work with here in the capital, but also with a higher level of expectation and pressure on him, but he always delivered in Bergamo and has a lot already in place and to work with at Roma.
Mission Part 1 accomplished, now time to kick on and win something. One Conference League title in 19 seasons is not enough for a club of their standing. They are coming off a 3-3 draw at Napoli and this is their 6th start in 16 days
Cagliari have spent 8 of their last 9 seasons in Serie A and finished 14th-16th in seven of them,18th and relegated in the other. Every season I would assume that survival is the target. They are currently 9th, but have lost their last two, conceding six of just nine goals given up in the process and I suspect normal service is in the process of being resumed. Expected numbers suggest they should have scored 3 and conceded 6 more and have 5 points fewer and Roma should win this and they are 9-1-0 h2h as host, along with eight clean sheets.
2 units Roma to score "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.33 asian line, next best -1.5 ball @ 1.95.
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