Suarez up to his old tricks again, and again!
Sep 16, 2025
MLS : Inter Miami- Seattle Sounders
We have three MLS games this midweek, two tomorrow and I feel obliged to take a look at this one as it features a big player from each Conference.
Inter are the superstar laden Supporters Shield holders in the East and Sounders have long been a top 2-3 team in the West.
Current positions....
| Group E | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 57 | LWWL | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 18 | ||
| 2 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 55 | WLLW | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | ||
| 3 | Charlotte FC | 30 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 40 | +11 | 53 | WWWW | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 28 | ||
| 4 | Nashville | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 50 | LLWL | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 24 | ||
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 43 | +5 | 49 | WOLX | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 25 | ||
| 6 | Orlando City | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 48 | XLWW | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 20 | ||
| 7 | New York City | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 47 | WLWW | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 20 | ||
| 8 | Inter Miami | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 43 | +11 | 46 | LXWL | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 26 | ||
WEST
| Group W | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | San Diego FC | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 | LWOW | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 21 | ||
| 2 | Minnesota United | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 51 | 33 | +18 | 54 | WXWW | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 16 | ||
| 3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 31 | +23 | 52 | WWXL | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 15 | ||
| 4 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 45 | XWLW | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 22 | ||
Inter are coming off a frightful 3-0 loss at Charlotte over the weekend ahead of which I wrote ....
Very lengthy notes on Charlotte and their trip to Revolution at the end of last month are reproduced at the very foot of this email and they recorded their 8th straight win in MLS play in that game, with a 2-1 victory. Now they host Supporters Shield holders Inter, but the visitors have won "just" four of their last eight and only 3 of 9 on the road, without a clean sheet in that sequence and whilst conceding 3+ goals in five of those games. The visitors have seven points fewer than at the same stage 12 months ago and coming into this season I did give some words of warning .....
In general terms, in most leagues, teams at the football of the table have struggled to match their numbers and those at the top usually out perform their own, that seems fairly obvious, but sometimes even those are worthy of mention when they are at the extreme end and most extreme of all is Inter Miami and their Dad's Army band of superstars!
Inter should have earned 29 points fewer, an absolutely enormous number, as 45 would have placed them 8th in the Eastern Conference and 17th overall in MLS. To further highlight that , they also overachieved by 0.81 goals per game for goal difference compared to xGD, the most by a country mile in the MLS.
Of course, they still have those superstars and we are talking about players on the world and not just MLS stage, but Jordi Alba will be 36yo next month, Sergio Busquets and Lionel Messi a respective 37 and 38 in early summer and Luis Suarez has just turned 38. Can the Core 4 still perform, I guess, are they likely to be as good as in 2024, unlikely! The club also sold Diego Gomez to Brighton for a big fee.
This season expected numbers again suggest they are not playing to what has long been considered elite MLS level and they should have scored 12-13 goals fewer. The Charlotte bubble has to burst some time and big name players do find a way to get the job done, but on all known data and everything we have seen in the last two months, these odds make little sense.
No one is playing better than Charlotte ATM, not even close, but it was another error strewn , ill disciplined performance from Inter, who had a player sent off late but were already 2-0 down at the time and much of their xG created came from a Lionel Messi penalty miss. Talking of discipline, Luis Suarez was suspended for that game and also tonight after first getting a Seattle player in a headlock in their Leagues Cup final meeting 16 days ago (Sounders won 3-0) and after being dragged away, then ranting and spitting at a Sounders security official, what is wrong with that guy ? He got away lightly with his MLS three match ban, but got a six game Leagues Cup ban, along with Sergio Busquets (2 games) and Tomas Aviles (3) and the latter was the player sent off on Saturday, so I doubt he has learned his lesson. Of course that is going to make tonight "tasty" or "intense" depending on your view.
Seattle have lost just once in 16 starts and have averaged 2.56 goals in that sequence, scoring 2+ in 13 and they always come on strong at the end of every season and will be looking to add to that League Cup success.
Early this season I spoke about the Sounders potential and also what they have achieved as a club...............
As usual, this is for the future, not just for today and I think that the Seattle Sounders look very interesting this season. They almost always are and I speak of them often as the best run franchise in MLS. Sounders have been in the league for 15 seasons, they have made the playoffs in 14 of those, only coming up short in 2022, but got back on track last season when they were very unfortunate not to go further, which we are about to look into and have taken some brave decisions this off season, to win trophies. It should also be mentioned that the year they did not make the postseason, they had already won the CONCACAF Champions League, they were just the third MLS team to win that and first in over two decades, with the competition totally dominated by Liga MX clubs.
Last season Sounders finished 2nd in the Western Conference, they should have scored 6-7 more goals and had the best defence by some way, even further in regard to xGA and they were the best team in MLS in build up play. They cut their losses this off season, allowing Heber , their Brazilian striker to depart and also and far more sadly, waved goodbye to Nicola Lodeiro, a tough decision and a tearful farewell for a club legend ,not just for the player, but teammates and supporters.
They were replaced by Pedro de la Vega, a 23 Argentine playmaker from Lanus for a reported $7.5m and proven MLS striker Danny Musovski from Real Salt Lake. He joins Jordan Morris (66 goals and 27 assists for the club) and Raul Ruidiaz (78 and 14) up top and the club, who are rock solid in all other areas should score a lot more goals this season. They have not come so far, with just a point from two games, a trip to play nemesis LAFC where they lost 2-1 but again bossed with 1.9 xGF and 16 attempts and a 0-0 home draw with Austin where they won attempts 23-2, ITB 14-0 and allowed just 0.04 xGA. The newbies need time to settle and they have also been without four key players to injury and are often slow starters, but once things gel, I feel this will be a very strong and improved team and one coming from a strong starting point and who are already giving up nothing defensively.
In June I updated with ...........
Sounders took an age to get going, but, starting with that re-arranged trip to Philadelphia, which they won 3-2 ,they have lost just once in nine starts in all competitions and that to Real Salt Lake who on current form and stats are the best team in MLS. We have been here before with Sounders, they fall out of the blocks and "always" come on strong, they never panic and head coach Brian Schmetzer ( 20 + years at the club) and owner Adrian Hanauer ( been with Sounders since before they were a MLS team) who are also both born and raised in the city, have seen it all before. The pair also both come from families of German immigrants and have worked together for 25 years or so.
There is an incredibly interesting but long article on Schmetzer , Sounders and how he and they were trying to "fix things" after such an awful start, that was posted a month ago and you can read it here.
It is a shame that this is such a quick turnaround, playing on the West Coast on Saturday and East Coast Tuesday is brutal. But they are in better shape than Inter, who are also a bit long in the tooth in key areas for these two games in three day schedules and they also had to travel to Charlotte and back which is not long, but still time and energy consuming. Inter are also shorthanded and could only name 7 on the bench on Saturday, only used three (one of whom was a just turned 18yo forward called up from the second team for his debut) and now have another suspension. They might be forced to give another teenager his debut this evening.
Miami have kept just a single clean sheet in 18 starts, conceding 3+ goals in 8 of those games and the truth is that they are now getting results in line with performance levels.
The travel from West to East is a concern, but Inter has even more issues and obstacles to overcome.
2 units Seattle Sounders level ball @ 2.76 asian line.
Good luck!
New England Revolution- Charlotte FC (written August 30th)
Two years ago I wrote .....
Charlotte are in their second MLS campaign, in the first they won 10 home games, a total only bettered by Union and LAFC the two Conference winners and they are always going to get fantastic support in a sports mad city and only Atlanta attract bigger crowds. Their debut home game attracted an all time MLS record crowd of over 73,000 and playing in the home of the NFL Panthers is an advantage given the size and location, which is very much uniquely positioned downtown.
However, for today I want to discuss some of the people behind the scenes. The owner is David Tepper, the 65 yo also owns the Panthers and is described as "arguably the greatest hedge fund manager of his generation" and a very wealthy man. Unlike many of his ilk, his approach seems long term and his senior appointments have followed suit.
Zoran Krneta is Sporting Director and he was appointed in December 2019. He founded the sports agency, Star Sports & Entertainment in 2005 and has identified and brokered contracts for more than 150 soccer players across the globe. He is responsible for all on-field operations, recruiting coaches and support staff, identifying and signing players for the MLS roster and creating the youth development academy.
Special Advisor, whatever that might be, is Steve Walsh, who was also appointed early (March 2020 ...two years before they were due to play their first game), he made my notes yesterday and his name at Leicester City, helping build the squad which won the Premier League. Prior to that he had spent many years at Chelsea and was part of a highly successful scouting team there, but he was in sole charge of recruitment at the King Power and created his magnum opus, signing Jamie Vardy, Danny Drinkwater, N'Golo Kante and Riyad Mahrez amongst many others, all for small fees and from unusual sources. For example, Mahrez from the second tier of French football for £400k and Vardy from non league football for £1m. To give his impact some clout, Sir Alex Ferguson referred to Walsh at the time as the "most influential person in the Premier League", which is a pretty good reference. Ferguson might also have added League 1 which City won by 7 points shortly after Walsh's arrival and the Championship, won with 102 points after his return and second stint at Leicester. Months after the title win, Everton activated a buy out clause for Walsh and appointed him their Director of Football, he was relieved of his duties after less than two years and the story was that the magic touch was gone and that the Toffees had "wasted " £150m-£200m on new players.
Wasted seems a big harsh, Everton might not have made the quantum leap forward that they hoped for, but amongst the Walsh signings were Jordan Pickford who is still the Everton and England goalkeeper and he has just signed a new four year contract. Nikola Vlasic who has recently been sold (not by Everton) for three times what was paid, Ademola Lookman now at Atlanta and coming off a great season, is valued at 4 times what Walsh decided was fair and Idrissa Gueye was sold to PSG for £30m ( bought for (£8m). Walsh also signed Dominic Calvert-Lewin for £1.5 m from a League 1 team where he had never scored, a signing in the mould of Mahrez and Vardy, prior to his recent injury issues he was valued at upwards of £50m and still aged only 26 yo he has almost 50 EPL goals and is a full England international. I also understand that Walsh also suggested to the board, which was refused, paying a combined £20m for Harry Maguire ( later sold for £80m, by Leicester of all teams) and Andy Robertson , subsequently also valued at £80m and long regarded as one of the best left backs in football. Walsh stated himself that he had a deal done and about to be signed for Erling Haaland as a teenager for €4m , which Everton also refused to sanction.
This is the whole thing, without patience, almost nothing works. Everton could have brought Walsh in with a long term plan for several seasons, a budget for Y1, Y2, Y3 and let it play out, but as always most clubs want instant success. The season before his arrival they finished 11th, in his two campaigns at the club 7th and 8th which hardly seems terrible, Walsh doubtless made some poor signings, but not all were turkeys and it was not his decision to spend so much , so quickly. His forte was always spotting bargains and he can clearly do that better than almost any other single individual. Walsh "advises" both the owner and the Sporting Director at Charlotte.
Krneta, Director of Scouting, Thomas Schaling and Head of Analytics and Technical Scouting, Lisandro Isei have all also now signed new and multi year contracts, along with head coach Christian Lattanzio. He originally joined as Technical Coach in July 2021, but quickly replaced Miguel Angel Ramirez in the main role. Lattanzio spent many years working for the City group alongside Patrick Vieira, firstly with the youngsters at the Etihad and then with NYCFC and Nice.
All of those coaches have been with the club for almost three years already , some longer and are now tied up for many more and Tepper, who is obviously used (only) to success, knows this project needs the right people and at least a little time.
They have overall invested a lot of money in finding talent that can identify talent and in improving those players once they arrive, it feels like an established process already, considering Charlotte only played their first MLS game in February last year. They also took great pride in the sale of midfielder Riley McGree to Middlesbrough for a large profit after signing him from A-League in Australia, it was sooner than they ideally wanted to sell, but saw it as a clear sign that the process was working and up and running.
They have signed players from 10 different countries , including Brazil, Argentina and Columbia and Walsh has spoken of South America offering rich pickings and we have already seen the benefits of "bargain basement shopping" there at other well run clubs. Not the most obvious one to point out, but as Walsh had so much success in that league/country previously, the signing of 20 yo CB Adilson Malanda from Rodez in Ligue 2 caught my eye, now 21 yo, he has played pretty much every minute of every game since getting up to speed upon his arrival last August and looks a talent and a very mature player for his age in a position where experience is always seen as key.
Charlotte have got a lot right off the pitch, in addition to all the scouting outlets they have a lot of coaches dedicated to getting the very best and every inch of improvement out of the individual, with a modern and advanced approach to analytics and the mental side of sport/life. It all feels in place now and we can expect on field improvement to follow. That would be termed as a playoff spot this season, 8th and 9th place gets you into a playoff game, but 7th into the, new for 2023, Round 1 playoff series and that should be the target. That will be tough, but top 9 is achievable and surely seen as progress and from year 3-4 a new expansion team can really kick on, witness FC Cincinnati this season.
A very interesting project going on in the Carolinas.
Last month I updated with .....
In their first three seasons in the MLS they finished 9-9-5 in the Eastern Conference ,making the playoffs in the last two. They currently sit 9th which will get them in again, but at least 6th place looks achievable. The club are yet to make that quantum leap forward, but everything is in place and as I said above, Tepper is a patient man, unlike a lot of super wealthy individuals. Walsh and Krneta remain at the club, Dean Smith the former Brentford and Aston Villa head coach has been running team matters for 20 months and the other individuals named above only left for bigger jobs. They HAVE to return to the postseason and winning a first playoff game would be seen as progress and will surely be the target. We can keep an eye on them in the next couple of weeks and next season too, as surely even Tepper will be looking for more bang for his buck going forward.
Smith said yesterday that his squad were "fresh" despite the quick turnaround and that they had built confidence from recent results and performances. He also said that injuries had cleared up and he would have far closer to his preferred starting line up going forward.
I hope some of you took notice as I don't write in such detail solely for the good of my health and that is the whole point of the newsletter, looking for teams/players who can improve or regress and not just for the day in question . Charlotte have won five in a row since I sent that update, keeping clean sheets in the last four, which is almost unheard of in MLS play. Charlotte are up to 4th and with 18 points still to play for and home games against two of the other contenders in the Eastern Conference to come, there is even more up for grabs.
Revolution have lost a Conference high 8 home games, they have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of 7 starts here and expected numbers for the season place them 28th of 30 in MLS and suggest they should have conceded an additional 8 goals.
2.25 units Charlotte FC level ball @ 2.17 asian line.
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