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Europa League: 

 

 

Villa look booked for top 5 in the EPL and a return to the Champions League next season regardless of what happens in the Europa League. However, it is some silverware they crave, this offers a golden opportunity and it is surely the competition that head coach Unai Emery loves above all others and which offers him a place in European football history. Villa are one of the oldest and most successful clubs in England, they were formed in 1874 and were one of the 12 founding members of the Football League, a competition which was initiated by Villa director William McGregor. The Villans are also the biggest club from England's second city and are looking to reestablish themselves as a Big 6 (-7-8) club having not won a trophy in 20 years. Emery is looking to guide a 4th different club to a 6th Europa League final since 2014 and a 5th win, having won three times with Sevilla, once with Villarreal, losing with Arsenal. It is a remarkable record.

 

Forest have not won a major trophy since 1990 and have done really well to reach this stage having been in a relegation battle all season. They looked to have secured survival with that fine 5-0 win away to Sunderland on Friday night, but wins for West Ham and Tottenham a day later, kept them in the mix...

 

	15		Leeds United	34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	XWWO	17	7	5	5	25	20	17	2	8	7	19	31
	16		Nottingham Forest	34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	WWXW	17	4	6	7	18	21	17	6	3	8	23	24
	17		West Ham United	34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	WOWL	17	5	4	8	24	29	17	4	5	8	18	29
	18		Tottenham Hotspur	34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	WXLL	17	2	5	10	20	30	17	6	5	6	23	23
	19		Burnley	34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	LLLL	17	2	5	10	15	26	17	2	3	12	19	42
	20		Wolves	34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	LLLX	17	3	3	11	17	32	17	0	5	12	7	30

 

Only three teams in history have been relegated with 40 points and given their goal difference Forest are pretty much there , but never say never and it might need a rethink over what is required and Leeds, West Ham and Spurs will all have played before Forest next take to the field on Monday. 

 

Anyway, Forest are unbeaten in eight, which includes a 1-1 draw here at the City Ground with Villa and have scored 9 goals in the last two and are in season best form at present. They are 19 points adrift of Villa, but xP puts the gap at 7 and the two were only separated by a point last season (Villa 6th, Forest 7th). I really do not think that there is too much between these two sides, but Emery's experience is a plus, having said that, Forest have been good on the road recently with wins at Sunderland ( where they destroyed the hosts), Tottenham and Midtjylland, along with draws at Porto and Manchester City all since the start of last month and scoring 12 goals in the process. Neither will want to lose this first leg and I feel that will be priority for both, a draw makes sense and another 1-1 game is calling to me loudly.

 

I like BTS but do not want to bet any football game at odds of circa 1.80, but I will suggest 1-1 and "officially" 2 units draw @ 3.31 asian line.

 

 

Braga have made my notes many times over the years, but rarely without mentioning their unique position in Portuguese and, as a result, European football. You can almost set your watch about them finishing 4th in Primeira Liga, they have done so in 12 of the last 20 seasons, finishing top 4 in 16, including the last 9 and they are currently, yes, you guessed it (!), booked for 4th....

 

2025/26				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		FC Porto	31	26	4	1	63	15	+48	82	WWWX	15	12	3	0	31	6	16	14	1	1	32	9
	2		Benfica	31	22	9	0	67	20	+47	75	WWWX	16	11	5	0	39	11	15	11	4	0	28	9
	3		Sporting	30	22	6	2	75	20	+55	72	XLWW	14	11	1	2	41	8	16	11	5	0	34	12
	4		Sporting Braga	31	16	8	7	59	31	+28	56	LWXW	15	8	4	3	31	15	16	8	4	4	28	16

 

They have little chance to break into the top 3 on a regular basis, they might do so every five seasons or so, but need one of the Big 3 to slump. They have to be happy with that given that they cannot compete budget wise with the top 3, but do operate on double the funding of anyone else. It also means that they are hugely experienced European campaigners and they have played 165 games in the UEFA Cup/Europa League in the last 20 years, reaching the QF stage four times and looking to play in their second final.

 

Freiburg have played limited European football in their history ( 7 attempts) and had never got past the R16 until this season. I do have some concerns about them, I have voiced the "goal difference" ones multiple times and we can add to that the huge number of games they have played this season, today's will make it 16 more than they faced in 2024-25 ( having also reached the DFB-Pokal semi final) and this is a team not used to playing twice per week. Mid/lower table Bundesliga teams play so rarely in midweek that they have a term for it, Englische Woche, which even with my limited German I know translates as English Week! 16 midweek games, last season Freiburg played two. I am not ruling the visitors out, they will be up for this tie, but they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 road games in the competition, only troubling the scorers at a Celta Vigo side who looked to have given up and I prefer the home win at odds offered.

 

2 units Sporting Braga -0.5 ball @ 2.53 asian line.

 

 

 

My heart breaks for Ukraine and Shakhtar Donetsk who did us a huge favour with that 2009 win in this competition, was that really so long ago! Since 2014 the club has been forced to play domestic home games in either Kyiv or Lviv some 750km and 1,000km away from Dontesk. European home games even further afield , this season's Conference League fixtures in Krakow, which will now feel like "home", but some games here have been played before low crowds and they have been happy to sell as many tickets as Palace fans wanted and 5,000+ are expected to attend from SE London and will make up a large portion of the attendance. Shakhtar still have a large Brazilian presence in their squad ( a dozen or so) but none of the real stars of old, they are the best team in Ukraine, but nowadays, considering the situation, they should not be up to beating any EPL team and this is the toughest fixture they have faced this season by a country mile. I "prefer" the away win, but like the odds about BTS and 3+ goals. The last four Europa League starts for Donetsk have seen all produce three or more goals with BTS in three and the selection would have obliged in 3 of the visitors last 4 starts in all competitions.

 

2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.66 asian line.

 

 I am going to swerve the Rayo Vallecano- RC Strasbourg game, we know the visitors well and I would like to see them progress, but perhaps the return leg will be interesting from a betting perspective.

 

Good luck!