Flu to continue recovery and goals likely!
Aug 02, 2025
Brazil Serie A:
| 2025 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Flamengo | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 6 | +24 | 36 | WWWL | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 34 | LOWW | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 32 | WWWX | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | ||
| 4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 28 | WXWW | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 5 | Red Bull Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 20 | +0 | 27 | LLLX | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | ||
| 6 | Botafogo | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 26 | XWOW | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 25 | XWWX | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | ||
| 8 | São Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 22 | WWWX | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | ||
| 9 | Ceará | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 21 | WLLL | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | ||
| 10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 | XWWW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | ||
| 11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 21 | XOLW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | ||
| 12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 20 | LLLL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 12 | ||
| 13 | Atlético-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 20 | LLLW | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | ||
| 14 | Grêmio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 20 | WLXL | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | ||
| 15 | Vitória | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 | XXWO | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | ||
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 | XXLW | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | ||
| 17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 15 | XLLW | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 14 | ||
| 18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 14 | LWXL | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | ||
| 19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 32 | -22 | 11 | LLLW | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 24 | ||
| 20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 5 | XXLL | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 14 | ||
Serie A is a low scoring league and we normally expect a shade under 2.45 goals on average, but it is currently running at 2.25 and that can be partly explained I feel by the stop/start nature of play this year due to the international breaks and FIFA Club World Cup. We should see an increase now and games will have to produce at the rate of 2.58 , a third of a goal increase, to come in at circa 2.44. Leagues do tend to revert to the mean , so it is not wrong for us to expect an upturn. As I type on Friday morning, nine of this weekend's ten games are priced at odds of 2.24- 2.58 to go "over" 2.5 goals and the same nine offer 1.95+ (up to 2.29 ) for both teams to score and I am sure that there is some value in there somewhere. That is the easy part, now it gets harder.....
Fluminense- Gremio
Flu have struggled for form since returning from the CWC but did finally return to winning ways in midweek with a 2-1 victory at Internacional in the Copa do Brasil. That is of additional interest, as all three goals came before the break and we need an earlyish goal and that is very much their modus operandi. In the league Flu home games have averaged 1.29 first half goals with 43% seeing 2+ goals ahead of the half time whistle. All bar one of Gremio's away starts have seen a first half goal, averaging 1.25 and both teams are near the top of the BTS chart, with that happening in 5 of Flu's 7 home starts and in 5 of 8 of the visitors' away games. The last three h2h meetings here in Rio have finished 2-2/2-1/2-3 with each producing 2+ first half goals. All the boxes are ticked and in a round when we are looking/hoping for goals, BTS @ 2.24, "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.46 and over 1 FH goals @ 2.31 all appeal, they have all been "shaved" a little overnight, but still look attractive.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.46 asian line.
Two other betting suggestions were sent to subscribers this round.
Good luck!
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