Going well in Germany...........
Mar 25, 2026
Bundesliga:
Written pre-season....
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart have finished 9-15-16-2-9 since returning to the Bundesliga and that second place in 23/24 was their highest since winning the title in 2006/07. They were a breath of fresh air the season before last with 78 goals and 73 points, a first Champions League campaign in 15 years was too much last season, but they retained a goal threat and 64 scored was 8 more than anyone else outside the top 4. Further encouragement comes by way of xP (+8 points) and xGF (+7 goals) and the latter only puts them 7 adrift of that fine 23/24 campaign. They also won the DFB-Pokal last season, that gives them Europa League football, but it is not the distraction that the CL was and they will be more used to a European campaign now. They have been active in the market, with five in and five out, but they sold one to Saudi for a largish fee and overall, it feels like good business. Head coach Sebastian Hoeness remains despite being much admired, he has had 100 games at the helm, through which they have scored an average of 2.10 goals per game, guiding them to the Champions League, second place and winning some silverware, it is a great CV. I am a pretty big fan and early in that 23/24 campaign I wrote ......Stuttgart play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are traditionally Bayern's biggest rival and they have finished top 4 nine times in the last decade, five times runner up, but no title success since they won back to back in 2010/11 and 2011/12. They came on strong in the second half of last season with 32 points, which was second only to Bayern and they won 9 of their final 12 starts, with a 34-13 goal difference. They signed two young players for good fees from English clubs in Jobe Bellingham and Yan Couto, which they are making a habit of and also sold another to another, with Jamie Gittens joining Chelsea for about the same (total) fee.
Almost impossible to see beyond a title win for Bayern and I have some doubts about Leverkusen, Freiburg, Mainz and Bremen. Also RBL to a degree as performances were so bad last season, but no European football should help them and they will surely improve. Dortmund look good for top 2 and would be my pick. I see Stuttgart as the big potential improver from last season and 9th was not a true reflection of how they played at all and with doubts concerning so many teams who finished above them 4.33-5.0 for a top 4 finish appeals.
I will stick with ......
3 units Borussia Dortmund without Bayern Munich @ 2.75 general quote.
3 units VfB Stuttgart to finish top 4 @ 4.33-5.0 general quote, I would bet a shade more at the upper end of that price band.
Update:
Both sit in pole positions for our bets.....
| 2025/26 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Bayern München | 27 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 97 | 25 | +72 | 70 | WXWW | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 41 | 12 | ||
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 27 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 58 | 28 | +30 | 61 | WWWL | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 15 | ||
| 3 | VfB Stuttgart | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 36 | +20 | 53 | WWXW | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 24 | ||
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 50 | WLWW | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 17 | ||
| 5 | TSG Hoffenheim | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 54 | 39 | +15 | 50 | LXWL | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 24 | ||
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 36 | +16 | 46 | XXXW | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 24 | ||
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 38 | LWOW | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 33 | ||
Only dangers to Dortmund appears to be themselves or Stuttgart and the only shame is that the two meet in the first game after the international break. Stuttgart are out of Europe now and whilst they are still in the DFB-Pokal (semi final) , a title they are defending, a return to Champions League football will be their priority and Dortmund have no distractions at all.
Dortmund currently trade @ 1.03 and Stuttgart @ 1.44 and I am expecting both to win he said knocking on wood loudly!
Good luck!
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