I am not spending much time on Arsenal, they are the best team in the EPL and by some way, they have greatly increased options and it is no coincidence that they also now have a better bench than anyone else. But that is offset a little today by the Gunners having already played 10 games more than Brentford this season and an additional four since the New Year fixture. 

 

The season is no less remarkable for the Bees, who are on course to better their highest ever EPL finish (9th) and points total (59), both achieved in 2022/23. This, having lost their two top goalscorers from last season (39 goals/13 assists), their captain and head coach and being "certain" to be relegated in July! Some reporters need to realise the season starts in August and ends in May!

 

I am not sure this is the best Brentford team in their five EFL seasons to date, but it is close, this group also has greater strength in depth and have more and ever increasing self belief. Their confidence when they went down to 10 men at Villa Park and when Newcastle equalised late after a few big decisions went against them, never wavered for a second and they truly believe that they are a "very good" EPL side and that is the biggest difference this season. The substitutions made at SJP on Saturday were brave in the extreme, made quickly and were very innovative and Thomas Frank and early season Keith Andrews would not have shown such bravado and the head coach and staff are probably evolving quicker than the team.  

 

But now they have to play Arsenal!

 

The Gtech is a tough place to come and that goes double under the lights when the stadium is usually "jumping" ,as was Griffin Park in the misty eyed past. The Bees have lost twice there this season, to a team who scored with both attempts on target they created and to Manchester City where Igor Thiago missed a 1 on 1 which would have salvaged a point and when, after KA changed things around, City had one off target attempt and an xG of 0.03 in 50+ minutes of football. My point being that with similar numbers/chances they would probably have avoided defeat in both.

 

The Manchester City win last night has also increased the pressure on Arsenal to respond and midweek results have opened up the opportunity for Brentford to move to within two points of a Champions League spot.

 

A really interesting game and a great pick for the sole Thursday TV game, but I am not sure that it is a fantastic betting opportunity. Having said that, Brentford do not really do draws ( 3 in 25 games, an EPL low) which helps, as does the fact that they have scored 33 goals in 15 home EPL games ( 2.2 pg) and I expect them to be brave again this evening, so we can be similar and try......

 

1.25 units Brentford -0.5 ball @ 5.44 asian line.

 

 

Good luck!