Restarts this midweek, much earlier than usual because of the World cup.

 

Last season played out thus ....

 

2025				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Flamengo	38	23	10	5	78	27	+51	79	XWXW	19	14	5	0	46	8	19	9	5	5	32	19
	2		Palmeiras	38	23	7	8	66	33	+33	76	WWLO	19	12	5	2	35	11	19	11	2	6	31	22
	3		Cruzeiro	38	19	13	6	55	31	+24	70	LXXW	19	13	4	2	35	14	19	6	9	4	20	17
	4		Mirassol	38	18	13	7	63	39	+24	67	XWLW	19	12	7	0	42	17	19	6	6	7	21	22
	5		Fluminense	38	19	7	12	50	39	+11	64	WWWO	19	15	1	3	31	11	19	4	6	9	19	28
	6		Botafogo	38	17	12	9	58	38	+20	63	WXXW	19	11	5	3	39	24	19	6	7	6	19	14
	7		Bahia	38	17	9	12	50	46	+4	60	LWXW	19	14	3	2	33	14	19	3	6	10	17	32
	8		São Paulo	38	14	9	15	43	47	-4	51	LWLW	19	10	4	5	27	17	19	4	5	10	16	30
	9		Grêmio	38	13	10	15	47	50	-3	49	WLWL	19	9	5	5	24	17	19	4	5	10	23	33
	10		Red Bull Bragantino	38	14	6	18	45	57	-12	48	LWLL	19	9	4	6	27	24	19	5	2	12	18	33
	11		Atlético-MG	38	12	12	14	43	44	-1	48	WLLX	19	9	8	2	30	18	19	3	4	12	13	26
	12		Santos	38	12	11	15	45	50	-5	47	WWWX	19	8	6	5	24	19	19	4	5	10	21	31
	13		Corinthians	38	12	11	15	42	47	-5	47	XLXL	19	8	6	5	27	18	19	4	5	10	15	29
	14		Vasco da Gama	38	13	6	19	55	60	-5	45	LLWL	19	8	4	7	31	26	19	5	2	12	24	34
	15		Vitória	38	11	12	15	35	52	-17	45	WLWW	19	9	6	4	21	15	19	2	6	11	14	37
	16		Internacional	38	11	11	16	44	57	-13	44	WLLX	19	8	6	5	27	20	19	3	5	11	17	37
	17		Ceará	38	11	10	17	34	40	-6	43	LLXL	19	7	5	7	20	18	19	4	5	10	14	22
	18		Fortaleza	38	11	10	17	43	58	-15	43	LWWW	19	8	3	8	23	23	19	3	7	9	20	35
	19		Juventude	38	9	8	21	35	69	-34	35	XLXL	19	6	5	8	21	26	19	3	3	13	14	43
	20		Sport Recife	38	2	11	25	28	75	-47	17	LLLL	19	1	7	11	17	39	19	1	4	14	11	36

 

It was a great title race which went almost down to the wire and Flamengo and Palmeiras also met in the Copa Libertadores final, to further highlight that they are the two big superpowers of the region, with Fla completing a historic double.

 

The teams in red type qualified for the Copa Libertadores, Botafogo and Bahia for the qualifying stage, the others directly for the group stage. Those in blue type for the Copa Sudamericana and it is very difficult to survive and avoid qualifying for one of the international competitions, but congratulations to Vitoria and International who managed that feat! The bottom four were relegated, Fortaleza played pretty well at the end of the season and should have survived, that had finished 4th in 2024 and will surely be favoured to bounce straight back up.

 

Fine margins decided things and Ceara and Fortaleza will both be playing second tier football, but were only six points off 9th place, in 2024 that gap was 14 points and in 2023 it was 17, in 2022 it was 18......you get the picture! Some big name teams get relegated in Brazil and at this stage, maybe only the top/big 2 can consider themselves free from such concerns.

 

Mirassol were the surprise package last season and it was no contest! They were promoted in 2024 and the other three teams who came up finished 12-17-20 and Mirassol were the smallest of those by some way, with a low budget and second lowest attendances in Serie A. They and Cruzeiro (up from 9th in 2024) were the big overachievers in relation to expected numbers. Cruzeiro are a much bigger club , by far actually and had the second highest attendances and the good times were always likely to return once they re-established themselves back in the top tier (promoted in 2022) and they had been champions in 2013 and 2014 and Copa do Brasil winners in 2017 and 2018. Having said all that, they should have been 12 points and 15 goals worse off and will be dealing with their first Copa Libertadores campaign in eight years. Expected numbers put Mirassol at 11 points and 18 goals worse off and they will be involved in a first ever Copa Libertadores adventure and their defence has been stripped, with four starters departing and three for no fees, joining bigger fellow Serie A clubs on free transfers. They have kept their top scorer, who was, incredibly, now 36 yo left back(!) Reinaldo who not only scored 13 goals (6 penalties), but added six assists from 34 league games, that is more goals that he managed in his previous 140 top flight games and if he matches last season's total, or even comes close, they should award him the freedom of the city, but the likelihood is that there will be a big drop off from player and team.

 

At the other end of expected numbers  12th placed Atletico Mineiro (3-1-7-3 four previous seasons)  and 16th Internacional (2-9-5 last three seasons) played much better than the table suggest, Inter by a long way ....13 points and 20 goals and coming in 6th for xP. However, they have a very big debt and have sold players and recruited on a budget and it seems their priority is not to increase that mountain of debt (£140m), but they have no international distractions and might still improve. CAM look almost certain to, 12th was their lowest placing since 2011 when 15th and they were 2nd the following season and they came in at 3rd for xP last season on one list, 6th on another. They have done a lot of business both in an out, but which looks good overall and Jorge Sampaoli is back as head coach for the second time, he returned late last season and should have the squad up to the required speed and fitness levels for his style of play. His Serie A record is good.... 116 games , with a 49.14% win rate and 1.72 points per game (good for 5th) and even better when he has a full season which he has done twice previously , with a 55.26% win rate and 1.86 ppg which is top 3 level.

 

The four newcomers up from Serie B are .....

 

 

2025				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Coritiba	38	19	11	8	39	23	+16	68	WOWO	19	9	8	2	21	10	19	10	3	6	18	13
	2		Athlético-PR	38	19	8	11	53	43	+10	65	WWWW	19	10	5	4	23	15	19	9	3	7	30	28
	3	1	Chapecoense	38	18	8	12	52	35	+17	62	WXLX	19	11	3	5	32	20	19	7	5	7	20	15
	4	1	Remo	38	16	14	8	51	39	+12	62	WLXX	19	10	5	4	26	16	19	6	9	4	25	23

 

That includes three top flight regulars, plus Remo, who return to the top flight after a gap of 32 years! They are in the middle of nowhere(!), sorry, in Belém, Pará and they will, apparently, clock up some 450 hours of air travel getting to games and someone at the club will be racking up the air miles! Opponents cannot complain too much as they have lost three long trips up to the NE of the country so will probably consider this a fair exchange, albeit a trip into the unknown. Athletico Paranaense are back after one season away, their relegation in 2024 was a shock, they had finished top 8 in the previous two seasons and had won the Copa do Brasil in 2019 ( runner up in 2021) and Copa Sudamericana in 2021 when they were close to the cup double. Their head coach, Odair Hellmann, has done pretty well in Serie A previously with Santos, Inter and Fluminense and their recruitment has been interesting, signing players from seven leagues and with a heavy Colombian bias (8 ). DOF is Eduardo Freeland who had the same role at Botafogo promoted in 2021 and Bahia promoted in 2022 and has now completed the hat-trick. He obviously left them in good shape as Botafogo finished 11-5-1 in the next three seasons and Bahia 16-8-7.  CAP could be anything and look the best of the newcomers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Restarts this midweek, much earlier than usual because of the World cup.

 

Last season played out thus ....

 

2025				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Flamengo	38	23	10	5	78	27	+51	79	XWXW	19	14	5	0	46	8	19	9	5	5	32	19
	2		Palmeiras	38	23	7	8	66	33	+33	76	WWLO	19	12	5	2	35	11	19	11	2	6	31	22
	3		Cruzeiro	38	19	13	6	55	31	+24	70	LXXW	19	13	4	2	35	14	19	6	9	4	20	17
	4		Mirassol	38	18	13	7	63	39	+24	67	XWLW	19	12	7	0	42	17	19	6	6	7	21	22
	5		Fluminense	38	19	7	12	50	39	+11	64	WWWO	19	15	1	3	31	11	19	4	6	9	19	28
	6		Botafogo	38	17	12	9	58	38	+20	63	WXXW	19	11	5	3	39	24	19	6	7	6	19	14
	7		Bahia	38	17	9	12	50	46	+4	60	LWXW	19	14	3	2	33	14	19	3	6	10	17	32
	8		São Paulo	38	14	9	15	43	47	-4	51	LWLW	19	10	4	5	27	17	19	4	5	10	16	30
	9		Grêmio	38	13	10	15	47	50	-3	49	WLWL	19	9	5	5	24	17	19	4	5	10	23	33
	10		Red Bull Bragantino	38	14	6	18	45	57	-12	48	LWLL	19	9	4	6	27	24	19	5	2	12	18	33
	11		Atlético-MG	38	12	12	14	43	44	-1	48	WLLX	19	9	8	2	30	18	19	3	4	12	13	26
	12		Santos	38	12	11	15	45	50	-5	47	WWWX	19	8	6	5	24	19	19	4	5	10	21	31
	13		Corinthians	38	12	11	15	42	47	-5	47	XLXL	19	8	6	5	27	18	19	4	5	10	15	29
	14		Vasco da Gama	38	13	6	19	55	60	-5	45	LLWL	19	8	4	7	31	26	19	5	2	12	24	34
	15		Vitória	38	11	12	15	35	52	-17	45	WLWW	19	9	6	4	21	15	19	2	6	11	14	37
	16		Internacional	38	11	11	16	44	57	-13	44	WLLX	19	8	6	5	27	20	19	3	5	11	17	37
	17		Ceará	38	11	10	17	34	40	-6	43	LLXL	19	7	5	7	20	18	19	4	5	10	14	22
	18		Fortaleza	38	11	10	17	43	58	-15	43	LWWW	19	8	3	8	23	23	19	3	7	9	20	35
	19		Juventude	38	9	8	21	35	69	-34	35	XLXL	19	6	5	8	21	26	19	3	3	13	14	43
	20		Sport Recife	38	2	11	25	28	75	-47	17	LLLL	19	1	7	11	17	39	19	1	4	14	11	36

 

It was a great title race which went almost down to the wire and Flamengo and Palmeiras also met in the Copa Libertadores final, to further highlight that they are the two big superpowers of the region, with Fla completing a historic double.

 

The teams in red type qualified for the Copa Libertadores, Botafogo and Bahia for the qualifying stage, the others directly for the group stage. Those in blue type for the Copa Sudamericana and it is very difficult to survive and avoid qualifying for one of the international competitions, but congratulations to Vitoria and International who managed that feat! The bottom four were relegated, Fortaleza played pretty well at the end of the season and should have survived, that had finished 4th in 2024 and will surely be favoured to bounce straight back up.

 

Fine margins decided things and Ceara and Fortaleza will both be playing second tier football, but were only six points off 9th place, in 2024 that gap was 14 points and in 2023 it was 17, in 2022 it was 18......you get the picture! Some big name teams get relegated in Brazil and at this stage, maybe only the top/big 2 can consider themselves free from such concerns.

 

Mirassol were the surprise package last season and it was no contest! They were promoted in 2024 and the other three teams who came up finished 12-17-20 and Mirassol were the smallest of those by some way, with a low budget and second lowest attendances in Serie A. They and Cruzeiro (up from 9th in 2024) were the big overachievers in relation to expected numbers. Cruzeiro are a much bigger club , by far actually and had the second highest attendances and the good times were always likely to return once they re-established themselves back in the top tier (promoted in 2022) and they had been champions in 2013 and 2014 and Copa do Brasil winners in 2017 and 2018. Having said all that, they should have been 12 points and 15 goals worse off and will be dealing with their first Copa Libertadores campaign in eight years. Expected numbers put Mirassol at 11 points and 18 goals worse off and they will be involved in a first ever Copa Libertadores adventure and their defence has been stripped, with four starters departing and three for no fees, joining bigger fellow Serie A clubs on free transfers. They have kept their top scorer, who was, incredibly, now 36 yo left back(!) Reinaldo who not only scored 13 goals (6 penalties), but added six assists from 34 league games, that is more goals that he managed in his previous 140 top flight games and if he matches last season's total, or even comes close, they should award him the freedom of the city, but the likelihood is that there will be a big drop off from player and team.

 

At the other end of expected numbers  12th placed Atletico Mineiro (3-1-7-3 four previous seasons)  and 16th Internacional (2-9-5 last three seasons) played much better than the table suggest, Inter by a long way ....13 points and 20 goals and coming in 6th for xP. However, they have a very big debt and have sold players and recruited on a budget and it seems their priority is not to increase that mountain of debt (£140m), but they have no international distractions and might still improve. CAM look almost certain to, 12th was their lowest placing since 2011 when 15th and they were 2nd the following season and they came in at 3rd for xP last season on one list, 6th on another. They have done a lot of business both in an out, but which looks good overall and Jorge Sampaoli is back as head coach for the second time, he returned late last season and should have the squad up to the required speed and fitness levels for his style of play. His Serie A record is good.... 116 games , with a 49.14% win rate and 1.72 points per game (good for 5th) and even better when he has a full season which he has done twice previously , with a 55.26% win rate and 1.86 ppg which is top 3 level.

 

The four newcomers up from Serie B are .....

 

 

2025				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Coritiba	38	19	11	8	39	23	+16	68	WOWO	19	9	8	2	21	10	19	10	3	6	18	13
	2		Athlético-PR	38	19	8	11	53	43	+10	65	WWWW	19	10	5	4	23	15	19	9	3	7	30	28
	3	1	Chapecoense	38	18	8	12	52	35	+17	62	WXLX	19	11	3	5	32	20	19	7	5	7	20	15
	4	1	Remo	38	16	14	8	51	39	+12	62	WLXX	19	10	5	4	26	16	19	6	9	4	25	23

 

That includes three top flight regulars, plus Remo, who return to the top flight after a gap of 32 years! They are in the middle of nowhere(!), sorry, in Belém, Pará and they will, apparently, clock up some 450 hours of air travel getting to games and someone at the club will be racking up the air miles! Opponents cannot complain too much as they have lost three long trips up to the NE of the country so will probably consider this a fair exchange, albeit a trip into the unknown. Athletico Paranaense are back after one season away, their relegation in 2024 was a shock, they had finished top 8 in the previous two seasons and had won the Copa do Brasil in 2019 ( runner up in 2021) and Copa Sudamericana in 2021 when they were close to the cup double. Their head coach, Odair Hellmann, has done pretty well in Serie A previously with Santos, Inter and Fluminense and their recruitment has been interesting, signing players from seven leagues and with a heavy Colombian bias (8 ). DOF is Eduardo Freeland who had the same role at Botafogo promoted in 2021 and Bahia promoted in 2022 and has now completed the hat-trick. He obviously left them in good shape as Botafogo finished 11-5-1 in the next three seasons and Bahia 16-8-7.  CAP could be anything and look the best of the newcomers.