Stuttgart to continue to score freely against Freiburg....
Sep 10, 2025
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg- VfB Stuttgart
I cannot say that I am totally surprised to see Freiburg pointless and having conceded 7 goals as prior to the season starting I wrote...
Freiburg recorded their 3rd top 6 finish in the last four seasons. 5th is their joint highest since 1994/95 and they were helped last season by no European football, having finished 10th in 23/24, the most recent time that they have played domestically and in Europe. Freiburg have a concerning -17 goal difference across the last two seasons and you have to go down to Augsburg in 12th place to find a team who scored fewer goals in 24/25. They sold Ritsu Doan for a decent fee to Frankfurt ( see below) and one other and spent roughly that (an additional 5m€ ) on six additions, mostly low profile ,which is how they operate.
My preseason notes on Stuttgart went a lot like this ....
Stuttgart have finished 9-15-16-2-9 since returning to the Bundesliga and that second place in 23/24 was their highest since winning the title in 2006/07. They were a breath of fresh air the season before last with 78 goals and 73 points, a first Champions League campaign in 15 years was too much last season, but they retained a goal threat and 64 scored was 8 more than anyone else outside the top 4. Further encouragement comes by way of xP (+8 points) and xGF (+7 goals) and the latter only puts them 7 adrift of that fine 23/24 campaign. They also won the DFB-Pokal last season, that gives them Europa League football, but it is not the distraction that the CL was and they will be more used to a European campaign now. They have been active in the market, with five in and five out, but they sold one to Saudi for a largish fee and overall, it feels like good business. Head coach Sebastian Hoeness remains despite being much admired, he has had 100 games at the helm, through which they have scored an average of 2.10 goals per game, guiding them to the Champions League, second place and winning some silverware, it is a great CV. I am a pretty big fan and early in that 23/24 campaign I wrote ......Stuttgart play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession.
They will have been very disappointed to open with a 2-1 defeat at Union Berlin, but sometimes you just have to accept that football and life in general is not always fair and just move on. They "won" xG 1.75-0.3, BC's 4-0, TIPA's 34-14 and were denied by the woodwork twice and five saves, with the Union goalkeeper only being beaten to the MOTM award by the scorer of their two goals. I am not sure how many times teams actually lose with those kinds of numbers, but suffice to say ....not many!
They have subsequently made hard work of progressing in the DFB-Pokal in which they are holders, then similarly toiled past BMG 1-0, but that was one of those games where the result was more important. They should get more space and chances today and did run in six goals in a friendly game on the road last week which means nothing, but at least gives confidence levels a small boost and they have scored 13 goals in their last four h2h meetings with Freiburg , winning three and I expect those trends to continue.
2.5 units Stuttgart to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 1.96 asian line.
Good luck!
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