Last weekend I ran fully updated Bundesliga stats and Bremen came in with 23 xP from their 20 games which was the same as their real total, their seasonal ITB and BC numbers were 114-150 and 26-39 and for the last five starts 26-28 and 6-5 respectively. Frankfurt had played a game more and their xP of 40 was one more than their actual total, they were 197-50 ITB, 62-38 BC for the season and 53-29 and 15-4 for their last five.

 

 

 

Glossary:

 

Pd = games played.

Pts= points .

xP = expected points.

ITB = attempts inside the box created/allowed.

BC = big chances created/given up.

ITB 4 = attempts inside the box created/allowed for the last 4 games only.

BC 4 = big chances created/given up for the last four games only.

 

 

 

Dortmund +85

Leipzig +69

Bayern +58

Leverkusen +39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bayern 87-48 33-12

Leipzig 86-36 19-5

Dortmund 81-33 23-8

Leverkusen 54-38 12-14

Union B 61-41 20-8

Wolfsburg 49-60 17-15

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 26 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.