PSG look a level above .....
Apr 14, 2026
UEFA Champions League: Liverpool- Paris Saint Germain (0-2)
Notes on last week's first leg are reproduced at the foot of this email. PSG won 2-0 and that was the minimum they deserved, "winning" xG 2.35-0.17, BC 4-0, ITB 12-1 and TIPA's 40-9 with the Reds chasing shadows for much of the game. The Parisians do not need to win at Anfield, unlike last season (see below), but look on another level and the hosts are going to have to gamble to try and turn this around and that will give PSG more space than they almost ever get and I expect them to exploit it.
The visitors are Champions of Europe, Liverpool are 5th in the EPL and fortunate to be so, sitting 5 points ahead of Brentford, whom I love, but who are not exactly football royalty. It was not just the bare stats and score from last week, more that Liverpool arrived in Paris seemingly scared and with no real belief, having damage limitation as a priority. When has a Liverpool side ever played in the Champions League knockout stage without believing they could/should win the competition? This is Liverpool for goodness sake, they have won the CL six times, double the next best EPL club and played in ten finals, the minimum they should have is self belief, but they don't and are led by a manager with fear in his eyes which seems to have become contagious and, as the Guardian website said.... Slot was standing pitchside "looking like a pub singer who once had a hit in the 1980's!" Away win.
2.25 units Paris Saint Germain -0.5 ball @ 2.60-2.75 general quote.
Good luck!
Paris Saint Germain- Liverpool
Liverpool and PSG met at the knockout stage last season …..
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Ahead of last week's first leg I wrote ......
PSG has basically been owned by the Qatari sovereign-wealth fund since 2011, their massive investment has brought 10 of the last 12 Ligue 1 titles and 24 other domestic cups! What it has not brought to date is their Holy Grail, a Champions League title. This will be their 13th straight season in Europe's premier club competition, they have made it to the knockout stage each time, the last 8 on 7 occasions, three semis and one final, but no trophy. Mbappe, Neymar, Messi, Zlatan, Cavani and others all tried to help, but to no avail. This season they look more of a team, but without that global superstar, or at least one who is not a massive name on the world stage yet and perhaps that will provide the key to opening the CL door.
Liverpool are almost the reverse, only one league title in 35 years(!), but two Champions Leagues to add to four they won previously, but that is not a lot of major trophies for a club of their stature within the game. If you had asked them ahead of this season what competition they wanted to win, I am pretty sure that they and Arne Slot would have answered the EPL, but that looks pretty likely anyway now and obviously the CL is going to take priority over the next week or so. However, it is not the all consuming dream that it has become for PSG, whether that is a good or bad thing it is hard to say, sometimes you can want something too much, think Rory and the US Masters, but the Parisians season, even when it brings another L1 trophy, will be one of disappointment if they are out of the Champions League in seven days time.
Both teams are near the top of their game, Liverpool are 13 points clear at the top of the EPL and already in the League Cup final. PSG are unbeaten since the end of November and have won 18 of their last 20, with two draws, one of those came in between their final two CL group stage games when they needed to win those and the other was a domestic cup game which they won on penalties. Since the last of those draws, they have won 10 in a row, scoring 40 goals with 7 wins by 3+ goals , basically, they are on fire! Their biggest issue is that they do not face the same level of competition that the Reds do week in , week out, but they are one of the few teams in football at the moment that can match Liverpool offensively. It looks like Liverpool will be without Bradley and that will mean TAA against Barcola and Doue and as technically gifted and fun to watch as he is, he lacks the discipline of Conor Bradley who would most likely have started if available and that is a problem this evening.
I have been impressed by PSG this season, more so than for many years and this group does not carry much, if any of the old baggage from all those close, but no cigar, CL attempts. I still have some issues with Liverpool defensively and it has to be said that holes can also be picked in their form away from Anfield, just three wins in nine since the turn of the year and two of those were fortunate IMO. PSG head coach Luis Enrique has promised to play to his strengths and very offensively and he will have been pleased to see how much joy Lille had against Liverpool, and at Anfield, at the end of January. Everton and Villa both scored twice when hosting Liverpool last month and were the better team(s) for lengthy periods and the visitors can be got at, if opponents are brave and I expect the Parisians to be just that!
Where to start!
Liverpool won 1-0 so that is the bare fact of the matter and where we stand this morning. However, it was incredibly one sided and not in favour of the Reds, who had some last ditch defending and a superstar performance from Alisson in the visitors goal to thank for the result. After being battered for almost 90 minutes, Liverpool scored very late on to seal the ultimate smash and grab victory. Stand out stats saw PSG "winning" attempts 27-2, ITB 11-2, on target 10-1, TIPA 52-13, corners 14-2, saves 0-9 (at least five of which were world class!). Even that doesn't really tell the full story! Alisson put in one of the great all time performances and PSG were probably the most impressive team I have seen in the last 4-5 seasons, matching their ability with massive hunger to win the ball from all 10 outfield players. It is hard to see how they can take anything but confidence from that showing and if they play to even 80-90% of that level, I would expect them to turn this around.
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PSG were much the better over the two legs and justice was served as they progressed through the tie and went on to win their first Champions League. Their are looking to win back to back titles, which is very rare in the modern game and that would cement their place in football history as an elite force. We are not sure that PSG are as good or have improved but they look close , whereas Liverpool have regressed and they are poor defensively, mid table EPL level at best and with a soft underbelly, as we saw in their FA Cup capitulation to Manchester City last weekend. The Parisians will not want to leave things so close this time and I strongly favour them to take a good lead to Anfield.
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