Little fish are sweet!
May 08, 2025
Two classic Champions League semi finals and it really is the competition which ALWAYS produces the goods. Arsenal gave it a good go early and on another day might have scored twice before trailing, but were never going to be able to press at that level for 90+ minutes and the only offensive option they introduced from the bench in a game they were trailing was Leandro Trossard. Inter looked totally out of things on Tuesday at 2-3 ,having conceded three unanswered goals, with the seconds ticking down and "out on their feet", but found two goals, one very, very late and the other in extra time, both from highly unlikely sources and the final is set. The best team in Europe who have been chasing this trophy for a decade or more like the Golden Fleece, facing the one who feel they were robbed two seasons ago and who simply refuse to lose and who willed themselves back to another final. I cannot wait!
The games were all the more enjoyable, if that was possible, as I put up a small selection in each and even though stakes were minimal, odds were good and as the saying goes, little fish are sweet!
You can read both below and they give good examples of what a standard preview looks like and what we are producing on a daily basis.
UEFA Champions League: Internazionale-Barcelona
The first leg was fantastically exciting , finishing 3-3 and with only two yellow cards......
Were there really only four yellow cards in the Arsenal- PSG game last night ? It felt like more and the referee had to reel things back in after getting a little card happy too early, risking spoiling the game. I feel the match odds for tonight's other semi final between Barcelona and Internaz
Anyway, I feel there is some value and unlike a previous round where we discussed a card happy match official, tonight we have a very lenient one in Clement Turpin and he will be wary of digging himself into a hole like Slavko Vincic last night. Turpin has awarded just 9 yellow cards in six Champions League games and only one total in two potentially volatile knockout stage games between Man City- Real Madrid and Real- Atleti and he has changed his style this season in this regard, despite awarding three penalties in the competition, which UEFA seem to love! Asian markets have lowered the "under" four cards by some 35 clicks overnight, so others are on this same track, but the under three cards or under 25 points ( 10 yellow, 25 red) which is priced @ 3.25 general quote is surely value.
The six goals came from "only" 3 BC's and an xG of 2.26, but Barce hit the woodwork three times and were denied by 7 saves and they dominated possession ( 72%-28%) and TIPA's (37-15) and passes in the final third 253-30. BTW, I think we are likely to see far more cards tonight, the referee is Szymon Marciniak who has awarded 13 yellow and two red cards in his last two Champions League games and there is more on the line this evening and tempers could get frayed and the Polish official is less likely to let things slide.
On the playing side we can expect more of the same, these two teams are too set in their patterns, know where their respective strengths lie and it will once again be defence against attack, but Inter do know they can hurt the visitors from not very little, especially as it seems Barce will be without both starting full backs.
Goals do seem likely again and even another shootout if we get that early(ish) break though strike. Inter were 10 games without a clean sheet until that 1-0 win over Verona at the weekend where they rested "everyone" and whilst this is a game where I am happy to just sit back and enjoy, I will make one very small suggestion as I feel like I ought to. Barcelona's last 9 competition away games have averaged 4.56 goals and in the five that they won they conceded at least twice in two.
1.5 units "over" 4 goals @ 3.12 asian line.
UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint Germain- Arsenal
Ahead of the first leg I wrote ...........
PSG looked the best team in Europe to my eyes until they went 2-0 up at Villa Park in the quarter final second leg, goals which gave them a 5-1 advantage on aggregate, they then conceded three and were outplayed by Villa who should probably have taken the game into extra time. Hard to say exactly what happened, maybe they just switched off and once you do that and the game turns, it is hard to get back into things. They are looking for an EPL hat-trick after eliminating Liverpool and Villa and for three and a quarter of those games PSG look "other level" good.
Arsenal will be up for this after beating Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate and did beat PSG 2-0 at the league stage, but that was not the same PSG as we have seen subsequently, but I suppose you could also say that it has not been the same PSG since the match against Villa turned around.....
| 15-Apr-2025 | CL (qfl2) |  Aston Villa |
3-2 | Paris SG |
| 19-Apr-2025 | L1 (30) | Paris SG | 2-1 | Le Havre |
| 22-Apr-2025 | L1 (29) | Nantes | 1-1 | Paris SG |
| 25-Apr-2025 | L1 (31) | Paris SG | 1-3 | Nice |
However, they were 5-1 up at Villa, have had Ligue 1 won for weeks and are playing with only the two games with Arsenal in mind. The Gunners are elite defensively, but so are Les Parisiens with the ball and they averaged 21.5 attempts per game on goal versus Villa and 24 against Liverpool. To put that into context, Liverpool have averaged just over 17 per game, the most in the EPL and won the league with four games to spare. The Reds also conceded just 9.44 shots per game in the league, the second most, just a shade more than Arsenal and no reason to feel that PSG cannot have similar joy today .
Thomas Partey's suspension for the Gunners is a big loss, he has been very influential in recent months and the midfield will be far less mobile and the defence given less protection in his absence and the enforced change(s) in the middle of the park are going to come at a cost in other areas.
PSG won 1-0 and were, IMO, deserved winners, others saw things differently and, it has to be said Arsenal were on the wrong end of a contentious decision or two. The Gunners had some huge gaps in midfield in the absence of Partey, but will have him back today, as they did at the weekend. Let's talk about the interim league games before that. Both kindly lost 2-1, PSG at Strasbourg and Arsenal at home to Bournemouth and we opposed both. The Parisians could care less, their league title is won and for the last month they have not fretted if Ligue 1 was won by 13 or 23 points! The Champions League is their be all and end all and if they could have played in the final and finished 4th in the league, they probably would have accepted that, they are on track for the treble, but of the three, the CL is ranked 1, 2 and 3! Arsenal went pretty much full strength, or as much as injuries allowed and started well enough and led, but the Cherries gained the upper hand, first got control and were then dominant after Declan Rice left the field and they struggled big time with the Cherries press. Such was their superiority at the end that the Gunners took off Saka and Martinelli after the second Bournemouth goal, so, quite odd with just a handful of minutes to play in a game they were chasing. Of course, they had one eye on this fixture, but they have yet to claim second place in the EPL, or even to secure top 5. Their only win in five EPL games was over relegated Ipswich Town, add in the PSG defeat and it doesn't make great reading.
Of course, win tonight and turn this tie around and no one connected with the club will overly care.We are only a month or so removed from their two titanic wins over Real Madrid, but the current version of Real is nowhere close to the level of the French champions and those games aside, it is three months since we saw a strong Arsenal winning performance against true quality opposition. I don't rule out completely that they have one in the bank, but PSG press as hard and aggressively as any team in Europe and can cause all the problems that Bournemouth did and more. They also have a FAR stronger bench and so many top games are won when changes are made in the second half. In the two starts in the last week Arsenal had Gower, Clarke, Setford, Tierney, Zinchenko, Henry-Francis, Sterling, Butler-Oyedeji and Kabia on the sidelines to call upon, no disrespect to any , but if you can find me a couple of game changers amongst them, please put answers and reasons on the back of a postage stamp, it should fit! Mikel Arteta only felt able to bring on two substitutes in the PSG first leg, the visitors' three changes saw Goncalo Ramos, Bradley Barcola and Warren Zaire-Emery enter the field of play. That trio have contributed to 61 goals this season, 10 in the Champions League.
I have been of the opinion for quite a few months now that PSG are the best team in Europe, having said that and all of the above, I am English and not a Tottenham supporter, so would like to see Arsenal in the final, but I struggle to make a case for it.
I feel that PSG are overpriced @ circa 2.27 -0.5 ball , even if they do not need to win and I see them as more of an even money (2.0) chance. The hosts do not often keep a clean sheet and have conceded in 12 of 15 home starts, including to Liverpool (1) and Manchester City (2), but they totally battered those two in respectively the first and second half, both halves (really) against the EPL champions. Add in that Arsenal will need to gamble at some stage and increasingly so and we could get a mini shoot out and I think I prefer a small bet on ..........1.5 units PSG to win and both teams to score @ 4.18 asian line.
Good luck!
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