Goal trend to continue in Ligue 1....
Oct 09, 2026
Ligue 1: AS Monaco - Toulouse
OK, so five rounds played and goals (2.82 per game) are running at a very similar level to last season (2.84) and, post COVID, Ligue 1 games have averaged 2.80+ and that is a very positive development, up some 10-12% from the five seasons prior to the pandemic. So I would expect that trend to continue.
The last 14 teams with double digit points after five rounds have all finished top 8 come the end of the season, ten in the top 4 and six have had 13+ points (all had exactly 13 points actually) and five of those finished top 3 and only two were PSG by the way, so that augurs well for AS Monaco. Less good for them is that they have outperformed their numbers and should have six points fewer and be five goals worse off and they are traditionally fast starters and do not always back it up. I would not rush to take low odds about them just yet.
Toulouse should be four points and four goals superior to the table and they absolutely beat up on Lille, "winning" xG 3.46- 1.21, BC's 5-1, attempts 24-10 and TIPA's 39-12 and being denied by the woodwork and nine saves from the Lille goalkeeper who got a perfect 10 rating, in the only one of their last four starts in which they failed to score 2+ goals.
I have already discussed some of those "soft" Monaco numbers and highlighted the goals that Toulouse have found and the performance levels when they haven't. The visitors have scored 2+ goals in 3 of 6 visits to the Principality and the two teams shared four goals when they last met, that was in the reverse fixture, but was less than six months ago and Toulouse, who have created the 5th most L1 chances this season, "won" BC's 5-2.
2.25 units Toulouse to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.0-3.25 general quote.
Good luck!
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