EPL: update after five rounds........
Sep 24, 2026
Premier League 2026/27 update:
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 | WWWW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 | LWWW | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 3 | Brighton & HA | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 | WWXL | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | ||
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | WXXX | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 | OWXX | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | WOWX | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 | WOXX | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | LXOW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 9 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLXW | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | LXLW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | LWLL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 5 | XLXW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | LWOX | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | LLXW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | OLWL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | WLOL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | ||
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LXXX | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | ||
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | XOLL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LOOL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | ||
Only five rounds played but our two strong outright positions were on Brentford and Leeds United and it is hard not to be pleased with them. Those original preseason notes are reproduced at the foot of this email and United are now trading at @ maximum 1.80 for a top ten finish down from 3.25 and the Bees are a respective 1.25/2.50/5.0 for top 10/ top 6/ top 4, down from 2.50/ 9.0 / 29.0.
Three teams remain winless and five are unbeaten, last season it was two and two. It is not easy to overcome a slow start and play catch up in the EPL, over the last six seasons, 18 teams had lost 4 or 5 of their opening 5 five games and 11 were relegated and that doesn't augur well for Coventry City. An even stronger trend is that over the same period, 22 teams were winless at this stage and 13 were relegated, filling all three positions on three occasions. Six of those who survived came in seasons when there were 4/5/6 teams winless through five rounds and all that should have Tottenham, Fulham and Bournemouth supporters a little nervous. No team has been relegated after picking up more than 8 points from their first five games in the last 20 seasons, probably longer (as I tired of looking), so the top 7 are "safe", those on 6-7-8 points have not fared so well and have filled 14 of the 60 relegation spots ( 23.33%), 4 points is actually the "bogey" number with 13 of those (21.67%) eventually dropping down to the Championship.
Everton's games should have produced an additional 7 goals, which is 1.4 pg and is worth noting, there should be a levelling up and more goals in their fixtures in the coming weeks.
I don't really want to pick holes in Brighton who have been sensational so far, but their xGD is +4 as opposed to +11 and they will soon have to deal with regular Thursday/Sunday football.
Manchester City should be four goals and 5.5 points worse off and they have placed at a very similar "expected" level to Brighton. They have yet to play a top half of the table opponent and whilst they can do nothing more than win, we will know far more about them by the next international break. Especially their squad depth and how Enzo Maresca uses them, as he has only made two changes from the bench in each of the last three City outings and, for whatever reason or thinking, that is a concern in modern football.
Five teams have scored more than ............... the rest of these notes are "restricted" unless you are a subscriber or on the clubgowi database, then you will have already received a copy, if not, email me and I will add you, that is free by the way!
Good luck!
Leeds United
I have to try and end today on a positive note and that was not easy! Anyway, United it is! They survived last season, their first back in the top flight, with a degree of ease and with 47 points, which xP suggests should have been 57 and head coach Daniel Farke, after great success in the Championship (three titles with two different clubs), finally got some EPL kudos. I am pleased for him, he seems a decent coach and nice guy and all credit to United for sticking with him.
They have been owned by 49ers Enterprises since June 2023 who also own, yes, you guessed it (!),the San Francisco 49ers and also Rangers FC of the SPL. This will be the second EPL season under their ownership, they were a little handicapped in the first, as they had PSR limitations, but these have now eased and they were always expected to be far more active in this window. As I type they have signed much admired CB Tarik Muharemovic from Sassuolo, he started all three games that he was available for for Bosnia at the World Cup (suspended for the other). The 23yo with a very big personality was a huge player for his nation in WC qualifying games against Wales and Italy and looks tailor made for the EPL. United also added Harry Wilson from Fulham on a free transfer, but those do not exist any more and he commanded a big salary and signing on fee after 10 goals and 7 assists for the low scoring Cottagers ( don't snigger!) last season. James Trafford also appears set to sign from Manchester City for £40m+ and become the most expensive British goalkeeper ever.
This is a club, like Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton where, going forward, you should be less concerned with whom they sell and more interested in who they sign, as it will almost always be an upgrade.
Further big news is that after 25 years with the 49ers, Paraag Marathe has departed to focus full time on United and Rangers. Marathe is known as a super skillful and sometimes ruthless operator, who is incredibly well respected and was being touted to run MLS (he loves "soccer") and this was the deal the York family (49ers owners) made to keep him within their organisation. He has helped lead the 49ers to become the 11th biggest sports team in the world and with expansion plans at Elland Road underway, United are a team with similarly lofty dreams. He was the driving force behind the Niners investment in United, a club he says he has supported for more than a decade.
Marathe started at the bottom with the Niners and was doing analytics based work on the draft for them many years before most in the industry knew what analytics were. He understands modern "soccer" (I hate the term, but here we are discussing someone who has moved from "football" to "football" and need to differentiate) and all the right concepts, maximising your win probability, even giving yourself a 52 % instead of 50% chance of success is huge, equating set pieces to three point attempts in basketball and 4th down plays in the NFL, having staff unafraid (not punished) for making (correct) decisions which turn out badly. Stepping back from results to see the quality of decisions made. Basically setting out "empirically based objective decision-making models for running the business and club".But he also appreciates that it is not all about the numbers and that "the human psychology of how the game plays out with players is still really, really important" and the role that the head coach plays in that and he has praised Farke for reinforcing that belief.
I think Marathe has already been influential at Elland Road, but expect him to be increasingly so going forward and we have a big club on the rise, with good people at the helm, they already feel "established" despite just one season in the top flight and with no European distractions and many other clubs in transition/turmoil, surely the only way is up!
United finished 14th last season, but only 5 points adrift of 10th place and xP saw them as 8th and I spoke several times of them being one of the best 3-4 teams to play at the Gtech.
4 units Leeds United to finish top 10 @ 3.25 general quote.
Brentford
Brentford have, under owner Matthew Benham, been a second time lucky team. In 2012-13 the Bees were a penalty kick away from automatic promotion from League 1 and lost in the playoff final to Yeovil Town, but Brentford were promoted the following season and arrived in the Championship a stronger team. In 2019-20 the Bees were arguably the best team in the Championship, but came up 2 points short and then lost to Fulham, of all teams, in the playoff final. They made no mistake a year later and were one of the easiest second tier playoff final winners ever. The rest is history and as disappointing as those two losses were, I think that Brentford were all the better for having that extra year to grow. Last season, they had a first ever European spot in their grasp and should have taken it, but that leaves them in even better shape this season and I think they will achieve the hat-trick of second time around success and I feel confident that all roads from TW8 will lead to Europe in 2027-28.
Why?
Brentford finished 9th last season, recording their third top 10 finish in four years and I think that has gone a little under the radar. However, I am not sure they were as good in 25/26 as the previous season and I think that gives them room to improve, maybe substantially from 53 points and there are not many teams in the EPL I am saying that about coming into this campaign. We can start with the numbers, xGF suggests they came in 11 goals short and that is exactly how many they were below the previous season and that is a "relatively easy" makeup in my opinion. Likewise, set pieces, they had 19.0xGF (third most) from SP's and scored just 10, Arsenal were top with 20.6 xGF and 23 scored and again, I see only upside there. Bees are very strong from SP's in general and gave up the second fewest SP xGA and second fewest SP goals .Their head coach Keith Andrews (more later) was in charge of them in the previous campaign and will be focussing on the scoring shortfall. Brentford made the most successful long passes in the EPL, were second best at fast breaks (joint most goals from them). They also had the highest xG per shot on goal, but had a relatively low number of attempts and of course, there can be some correlation there, but I see this as another area where improvement is likely.
Brentford are a selling club (most apart from the biggest in world football are), but that is very much the Brentford model, spend as much as you can, sell at premium price and then be able to spend a little more. The Bees are not alone, but have laid down the blueprint for this and traded masterfully in the transfer market. Now they are able to spend £40m on players, they did so on Django Outtara last season and beat that club record with the addition of the best midfielder statistically in Ligue 1 last season, Mamadou Sangare. They have also added Jaidon Anthony, 8 goals and 2 assists with relegated Burnley last season and CB Jannik Schuster from RB Salzburg, the trio for a combined £80m. Unlike some other non Big 6 teams, the Bees still have money and apparently are "looking". As I type, no one has left, Kevin Schade might, but not definitely by any means and there is a strong chance that no one of note will and that would be the case for the first time in many seasons. Brentford also get Josh DaSilva, Antonio Milambo and Fabio Carvalho back and available after the trio were out all last season (JDS for longer) and the last two were £20m+ signings. This is a real surplus of riches in all areas. The midfield options look sensational: Sangare/Yarmolyuk/Damsgaard (OMG!) with Jensen/Janelt/Milambo/
Back to Andrews and last season, when every man and his dog was tipping Brentford for the drop, partly because of his appointment, I wrote ......
OK, so Keith Andrews is the new head coach, he was set piece coach last season, but was brought to the club with more than that in mind, just as Thomas Frank was when he first arrived (effectively 3rd of 4th in the hierarchy at that time). The people making the decisions at the club like him and you can read the thoughts of Phil Giles on that selection process below. The club did interview one "name" head coach from Europe, maybe a second, just to get an idea of where they were, but Andrews was the outstanding candidate.
Brentford get little wrong in these dealings and had had over 12 months to look at him , longer in fact as he was on their radar before that and he looks and feels a very Brentford appointment and he is similar to TF in that he is media savvy , has good man management skills and absorbs data, which the club throw at staff in abundance, that is their "thing" and why internal appointments are always best. He has two assistants , one was also from inside the club, Neil MacFarlane stepping up from the B team and Mehmet Ali joined from Arsenal where he spent three years in charge of their U21 team.
Of course I am sad to see TF depart, but I did say that was likely last September. He personified the club , was a fantastic appointment, a perfect fit and hopefully he will thrive at Tottenham, but he was part of a team at TW8 and got huge help. I will mention it again, the analytics department at Brentford and Smartodds is huge and the data supplied is limitless and that will obviously continue and improve. TF was in charge of training and on pitch matters, but had just a 25% say, at most, in everything else, alongside Phil Giles, Lee Dykes and Matthew Benham and Andrews will slot into that.
Obviously Andrews was a big success and quickly won the media over too. He will doubtless have learned a lot and will be demanding as much of himself as he will of the team. He was instrumental in Damien Duff joining as his assistant early this off season, the two worked as coaches together for the Republic of Ireland national team and Duff was touted as joining last season. He won the League of Ireland Premier Division with Shelbourne as HC in 2024.
Very exciting times, missing out on Europe might be a bonus and the only way is up!
Obviously I am very keen on Brentford. This is a club who started to run along EPL lines when they were playing third tier football, who operate on another level in the transfer market and look for every area in which they can make even minimal improvement. The season before they were promoted to the top flight, data suggested they were a top 10 English side and whilst some laughed at that, three top 10 finishes in the last four seasons make that seem less far fetched now. With more stability, greater depth and options and so many negatives surrounding other teams and areas highlighted by last season's expected numbers in which they can step up considerably and with no European distractions, they almost have to improve.
I think that 2.50 for top 10 is way too big and full of value, but 8.0-9.0 for a top 6 finish is more "fun" and I will suggest 3 units on that. Top 4 is a tough ask but certainly not impossible and quoted @ 29.0 is a working man's price as the old saying goes and the Bees were just three points off 5th with 7 games remaining last season.