Goal difference..........more important than you might think!
Jun 10, 2025
Goal difference
I often write in my notes that goal difference is a good indicator of the true underlying ability of a team and one you can make with a quick glance at a league table. It is not foolproof but has stood the test of time and is a good place to start, especially at the beginning of a new season and especially in the EPL and EFL where games are so competitive and also where teams are playing 38-46 rounds, so a pretty big sample.
What I am usually making note of are stand out numbers, for example, if a team is in the bottom half of the table with a positive goal difference, they are probably in a false position and you can then run with that and check out some of their other numbers/metrics.
If we look at the 2023/24 campaigns, in the EPL, West Ham United had the worst goal difference in the top half of the table of -14, which was 13 goals worst than anyone else, despite coming into this season with so much optimism, a new head coach and on a spending spree, they finished 14th . Fulham and Brighton had the best lower half of the table goal difference and they were both in European contention almost all season
The Championship makes even better/worse reading! Cardiff City and Preston North End were the worst by a country mile amongst the top half teams in 2023/24, with respective -17 and -11 goal difference, 3rd worst was +2 and then +8! City finished bottom and will be playing third tier football for the first time in 22 years and North End finished 20th, avoiding relegation by a single point. Best amongst the bottom half of the table teams in 23/24 were Watford in 15th on +/- 0 and Sunderland -2. The Hornets were top six at Christmas but lost their way afterwards (as I said, not foolproof!), Sunderland won the playoff final and have returned to the Premier League.
So, who has made the watch list for next season ?
In the Premier League, Bournemouth in 9th (+12 goals) and Brentford in 10th (+9) had excellent numbers and not just goal difference and in both 23/24 and 21/22 the two teams to fill those spots had a negative GD. Tottenham had a nightmare in the league and finished 17th, but a -1 goal difference and whopping 64 goals scored suggests a much better next campaign is on the cards domestically, even with Champions League football to navigate.
In the Championship Norwich City who finished 13th, albeit with a +3 GD stand out like a sore thumb, next best goal difference in the bottom half of the table was -8.
League 2 throws out a couple of teams that might be worth a second look in Swindon Town 12th but +8 goals and Barrow 16th on +2. I would also add with these two that Barrow finished 8th/9th in the previous two seasons and Town picked up an eye-catching 41 points over the second half of the season, which equates to second place level. They have spent four seasons now in L2 ( 6-10-19-12) which is a long time for them and it does feel like a promotion, or at least top 6 push is likely (they are quoted @ 20-1 to win), but you will have to do a little more research.
Elsewhere.....
In Ligue 2 in France, Troyes 10th with +2 goals and Rodez 14th, also on +2 caught the eye, especially as -12 was third best! The former were in Ligue 1 as recently as 2022/23 and might have been facing a second relegation in three seasons as they had 4 points (1-1-7) from their opening nine games, but averaged 1.6 points per game thereafter, which is 5th place level. Rodez had good other numbers too, which we touched upon multiple times and were 4th the previous season.
One good, one bad (I am not saying if there were any ugly!) in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart were 9th but had a fine +11 goal difference , won the DFB-Pokal and finished 2nd in the 23/24 season ,so the only way is surely up for them. Freiburg finished 5th and only missed out on Champions League football by 2 points, but their -4 goal difference should have loud alarm bells ringing and the teams either side of them (4th and 6th) had a GD of +20 and +12!
Good luck!
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