Stuttgart have finished 9-15-16-2-9 since returning to the Bundesliga and that second place in 23/24 was their highest since winning the title in 2006/07. They were a breath of fresh air the season before last with 78 goals and 73 points,  a first Champions League campaign in 15 years was too much last season, but they retained a goal threat and 64 scored was 8 more than anyone else outside the top 4. Further encouragement comes by way of xP (+8 points) and xGF (+7 goals) and the latter only puts them 7 adrift of that fine 23/24 campaign. They also won the DFB-Pokal last season, that gives them Europa League football, but it is not the distraction that the CL was and they will be more used to a European campaign now. They have been active in the market, with five in and five out, but they sold one to Saudi for a largish fee and overall, it feels like good business. Head coach Sebastian Hoeness remains despite being much admired, he has had 100 games at the helm, through which they have scored an average of 2.10 goals per game, guiding them to the Champions League, second place and winning some silverware, it is a great CV. I am a pretty big fan and early in that 23/24 campaign I wrote ......Stuttgart play with great joy under Sebastian Hoeness who was the first coach to win Germany's third tier with a reserve team, his record at Hoffenheim looks great with hindsight and having saved Stuttgart last season, he has completed the about turn and got them playing with gay abandon in possession.

 

 

8th was Bremen's joint highest finish since 2010, but they have improved in each of their three campaigns since a one year hiatus in the second tier.... 13th-9th-8th and even more significantly in terms of points 36-42-51. Goal difference also improved -13,-6,-3, but that was their 5th straight Bundesliga negative goal difference and they were one of only two top half of the table teams to record one last season and that needs to be addressed, but I do not think it has. Not a lot of business either in or out and they have looked poor in preseason and lost to a lower level team already in the DFB-Pokal, with goals being a major issue and their only recognised senior striker is a 21yo with 238 minutes of Bundesliga action alongside his name! 56 yo new head coach Horst Steffen has never coached in the Bundesliga and mainly at the third tier or below, he plays a rigid 4-2-3-1 and Bremen have played a back three in every game in the last three seasons, through which they have improved, go figure! Some very odd decisions are being made at the club IMO.

 

 

RBL were 7th, which was their lowest finish since coming into the league in 2016/17  (posting five top 3's) and they missed out on European football for the first time since then, but is that a blessing in disguise? As bad as they were last season (it is all relative), they should have conceded 16 more goals ( 15th !) according to xGA and xP puts them on 9 fewer points (10th). Maybe Jurgen Klopp should spend less time advertising Trivago and more on his job as Global Head of Soccer for Red Bull!

 

RBL sold Benjamin Sesko for a very big fee along with a couple of other low level outgoings and signed seven players for circa 110-120m, for a net spend of 25m. Sesko contributed 13 goals and 5 assists last season, but they were "poor" anyway so I think that overall this is probably good off season business.

 

 

Mainz's 6th place was their best since 2015/16 and they have never in their history finished higher than 5th. XGA suggests they should have conceded an additional 8 goals putting them on 51, which is exactly what they gave up in 23/24 when they finished 13th. As I type, Mainz have sold Burkardt to Frankfurt and signed Hollerbach from Union (see both in notes on those teams) banking the additional 10m€. Both they and Freiburg have to operate on different levels to the teams above them in the table and RBL below.

 

 

Freiburg recorded their 3rd top 6 finish in the last four seasons. 5th is their joint highest since 1994/95 and they were helped last season by no European football, having finished 10th in 23/24, the most recent time that they have played domestically and in Europe. Freiburg have a concerning -17 goal difference across the last two seasons and you have to go down to Augsburg in 12th place to find a team who scored fewer goals in 24/25. They sold Ritsu Doan for a decent fee to Frankfurt ( see below) and one other and spent roughly that (an additional 5m€ ) on six additions, mostly low profile ,which is how they operate.

 

 

Dortmund are traditionally Bayern's biggest rival and they have finished top 4 nine times in the last decade, five times runner up, but no title success since they won back to back in 2010/11 and 2011/12. They came on strong in the second half of last season with 32 points, which was second only to Bayern and they won 9 of their final 12 starts, with a 34-13 goal difference. They signed two young players for good fees from English clubs in Jobe Bellingham and Yan Couto, which they are making a habit of and also sold another to another, with Jamie Gittens joining Chelsea for about the same (total) fee.

 

 

Frankfurt finished 3rd, their highest league placing since their return to the Bundesliga in 2012 and they have posted only one top 5 in that time. XGA suggests that they should have conceded an additional 7 goals.They will be weaker for the sale of Hugo Ekitike, although they have spent just over half that massive fee on four newcomers, including RW Ritsu Doan from Freiburg(10 goals and 8 assists) and CF Jonathan Bukardt (18 and 3 for Mainz)  which looks good on paper, but both are coming off their best seasons by some way and no guarantee they can come close to reproducing those numbers at a bigger club and whilst dealing with Champions League football. In their only previous CL campaign since 1960 (2022/23) they ran out of steam badly, with only 12 points from their final 13 Bundesliga games.

 

 

Bayer have finished top 6 last 8 seasons, but only two top 2 finishes, in each of the last two campaigns and whilst there was a 21 point and 36 goal drop off last season from that title winning campaign, it was still their second  best season by far in the last decade. XP suggests that they overperformed to the tune of 9 points and xGF that they had also scored 9 more than they should have. All change at the club! Also an end of an era in Leverkusen, albeit a brief one, with Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Lukas Hradecky and several others departing for circa 200m€, along with head coach Xab Alonso and a number of his staff as is the norm. About half that money has been spent on ten or so additions, but half of those are for the future, or back ups. Erik ten Hag has come in as head coach, I was very scathing of him at Manchester United, where he looked and felt out of his depth, maybe Leverkusen is a better fit and definitely less under the spotlight, but the jury remains out for the time being.

 

 

Bayern have won 9 of the last 10 titles and did so last season with their joint highest points total since 2017/18 and best goal difference and most scored since 2019/20 when they also won the Champions League. They made the big money signing of Luis Diaz, which was basically paid for by the sales of Mathys Tel and Kingsley Coman. Also tidied up the wage bill and signalled the end of an era with the departures of Joao Palhinha (loan), Leroy Sane, Eric Dier and favourite son Thomas Muller.

 

 

 

Good luck!