What's happening in Ligue 1............
Nov 10, 2026
Tuesday October 11th
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Wednesday.
Ligue 1 brief update:
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Paris SG | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 | WWWW | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | ||
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 | WWXX | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 | WWLW | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | ||
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 | WWWW | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | ||
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 | LWLW | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 | WWWL | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | ||
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 | XLXL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | +0 | 16 | LLWL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | ||
| 9 | Brest | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 | WWLX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | ||
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 | WLOW | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 | LLWW | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 | WLOW | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | ||
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 | LWLL | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 16 | ||
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 | LLXW | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 | ||
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 | XLXL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | ||
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 | LLOL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | ||
| 17 | Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 | LWOL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | ||
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 | LLLL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | ||
Top 3 odds....
Lille 2.25
Monaco 2.625
Paris FC 2.75
Lyon 3.25
Marseille 4.0
Rennes 5.0
Lens 7.0
Nice 21.0
Toulouse 51.0
Those odds look skinny at first glance, but they are paying two places (we can assume PSG are going to finish top 3), so the percentages are fair enough for a nine horse race, with all other contenders quoted @ 101.0 or significantly bigger.
My original and last international break update notes on Paris FC are reproduced below and the 34.0 , which dropped to 7.0 at that time is now down to 2.75 and even lower in places. Leading up to the Christmas break they play Angers (H 16th), Brest (A 9th) , Le Mans ( H 15th) and then their derby with PSG (A). That doesn't feel bad at all, you have to play the European Champions at some stage and PSG are carrying all before them ATM, but will have played a lot of games by then, with an injury depleted squad and will have travelled to Toulouse and Aston Villa ( where they lost last season) in the seven days leading up to the Paris derby.
The PFC numbers remain good and they are giving up few premium chances, conceding the fewest BC's in Ligue 1 (12) and the lowest xGA . If they continue to push for top 2-3-4 I could see their ambitious owners as likely to try to strengthen further in the January window.
Elsewhere, Rennes, with games producing 4.2 goals on average continue to be a fun watch and they are creating 3.2 BC's ( 3rd best) and conceding 3.1, also giving up 21.0 xGA the second most. So hard to see any immediate drop off in entertainment.
There are some gaping holes in the Marseille numbers , they have conceded the second most BC's and third most xGA without the comfort of the Rennes offensive stats to fall back on.
Something you really should note is that Lorient have been leading a (VERY) charmed life, they have somehow only conceded eight goals, but have given up a L1 worst 23.5 xGA and you can only outrun those kinds of numbers for so long. That goes double when you are only scoring 0.9 goals per game. They have a tough looking run of fixtures coming up and I expect to see some levelling out of that goal difference and a more realistic league position in relation to performance levels.
I will finish on a more positive note and that is with Brest. I was fearful for them preseason, but 9th place is the least they deserve and they are 4th for chances created, 2nd for BC's and have conceded the third fewest xGA and are very solid statistically on both sides of the ball and all this after losing their head coach and DOF in the summer and operating on a tiny budget..... incroyable!
Good luck!
Written October 20th
7.0 not as good as 34.0 , but it still has a little value ....
Ligue 1:
Paris FC were my only French outright betting suggestion preseason:
Ahead of last season I wrote ....
It has been 25 years since there was a Ligue 1 Paris derby and French football has long needed another team in the capital. It was always eventually going to be Paris FC and we have spoken a lot in recent seasons about their ambition. Since last year the majority owner has been Agache Sports which is owned by Bernard Arnault and his family, he is the chairman and CEO of LVMH and with a net worth of over $150bn he is one of the richest men in the world (top 10). Now that they are in the top flight, they want to stay and their budget this season of 120m immediately puts them 6th and half of that was said to be earmarked for transfers and that is more than 7-8 clubs have as their total operating costs! It is circa four times what most promoted clubs have at their disposal and whilst that doesn't guarantee success, it certainly makes life at the higher level a little easier, although it brings with it added pressure and levels of expectation.Obviously no one has left the club that they wanted to keep and so far they have spent just half of that quoted transfer budget on four players, a quality Brazilian CB from Porto and three players (two senior) all with top flight experience. I expect more to arrive before the window closes and they appear to be tracking some big names at what would be fancy fees for most Ligue 1 clubs.
PFC are actively negotiating to appoint former Bayern Munich executive Marco Neppe as their new technical director.The 47-year-old German, who served as Bayern’s sporting director from 2014 to 2024, has been advising the newly promoted Ligue 1 club behind the scenes since their promotion in May 2025.
Neppe was instrumental in Bayern’s signings of players like Alphonso Davies and Harry Kane and brings extensive experience to Paris FC’s ambitious project. If that comes about or not, he has been advising and shows the kind of waters that they are swimming in now. I suspect that 25/26 will be one of learning and seeing where they stand but they are very ambitious and a relegation campaign is almost unthinkable and even if it happened, I feel they would be going deep into pockets in January.
Not a bad first season in Ligue 1, they are very ambitious and they probably hoped for more, but a solid platform to build from and a cup win over PSG at the Parc des Princes will live long in the memory. Veteran head coach Antoine Kombouare took over late in the season to see the campaign out, OK, maybe not "veteran", but he has been around "forever"! He has now been replaced by Liam Rosenior who had great success at Strasbourg, before his Chelsea "nightmare". He has the young modern head coach profile that should provide a good fit for PFC. As I type, they have spent 75m€ on five young signings to strengthen in all areas , including Pablo Pagis ( see Lorient notes), Lassine Sinayoko who scored 12 goals for 15th placed Auxerre who only totalled 34 goals, Luca Koleosho who was on loan at PFC last season and biggest fees on CB Diego Coppola (Brighton) who also has a half season loan at the club and CM Patrick Zabi, a 19 yo DM from Reims who has huge potential. They will have a top 5-6 budget of around 130m€ and if they need to spend in January, for whatever reason, they will. Top 8 awaits, but they will be aiming higher.
It is Paris FC for top 3 @ 34.0 that is hard for me to resist , that seems a shade too big with doubts about many other main contenders and they seem capable of making the 15 point leap forward and I could see them spending big in January if European football were in sight. So I will stick with that.... 2 units.
Today they sit in a tie for first place....
| 2026/27 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 14 | WLWO | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 2 | Paris SG | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 | WWWW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | ||
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 | XWLW | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | Paris FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 | WLWO | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 14 | LXWX | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 6 | Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 | LWLW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | ||
| 7 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | WWLX | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 8 | Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | WWLX | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | ||
Their only defeat came in a game where they won xG by a full goal and of the current top 8, only they and Lorient, who are not strong enough to compete at the top of the table for long, are not in Europe. Lyon, Monaco and Rennes will be playing Thursday-Sunday on a long term basis and Lille and Lens have another six very tough Champions League games and hopefully more to play. PSG too, but with their squad and budget that is not a concern. Top 3 odds are now .....
1.8 AS Monaco
2.2 Lille
2.75 Lyon
3.25 Rennes
3.75 Lens
7.0 Paris FC
Monaco could finish top 3, of course they can, but some of their numbers give HUGE cause for concern and they are bottom of Ligue 1 for xGF and 11th for XP and their odds are incredibly short.
Similarly Lille, who should have conceded an additional six goals and I think those numbers will catch up with them as the effects of a CL campaign kick in.
Rennes are not strong enough defensively IMO, 14 goals conceded is bottom six level and xGA says that should even be a little higher.
PFC come out top for xP and second to PSG for xGD , they have no distractions, can flash the cash should they wish, a joint third biggest budget (now all the details are in) and almost limitless ambition (owners the Arnault family have a net worth of circa $190bn). Striker Lassine Sinayoko ( see above) with six goals and three assists already to his name is staking an early claim as signing of the season.
No need for anyone on PFC at 34.0 to bet, you already have great value, but if you are not, I still feel they offer better value at 7.0 than any of the other main contenders, some at far lower odds.
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