"Best offense" against the "best defense" , Both teams have a 6-1 record and are 2-0 in non Conference games, as this is. Big stories are firstly that the Vikings are coming off their first loss of the season, where they gave up 230 yards on the ground and missed a huge number of tackles (19) and they now face Bills RB James Cook who has averaged over 5.1 yards per carry and 97 per game since the start of LAST season and arguably the most mobile quarterback in the NFL, in Josh Allen. Secondly, the Vikings are without quarterback Kyler Murray and 33yo backup Carson Wentz will be starting. He has not played a lot of football , just 8 starts in four years and he is nowhere near as mobile as Murray and is very sack prone in a collapsing pocket ( sacked 25 times in 6 games with the Vikings).

 

Minnesota blitz more than any team in the NFL, we have already spoken about that this season, but it has now got to almost ridiculous levels. Two weeks ago they set a blitzing record against the Colts and then blew that out of water against the Lions last week. They blitzed Jared Goff on 26 of 29 dropbacks, that is 89.7%  (highest since records began) and the NFL blitz average is 31.7%! Allen has thrived and completed 65.7% of passes, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt when opponents bring five or more rushers.

 

The Bills have won 6 of 7 road games, only losing in the Divisional playoff game in Denver in overtime, where they fell out of the blocks, shot themselves in the foot with a handful of fumbles, yet dominated offensively and should still have won. They have scored 30+ points in four straight road games, including that loss and Minnesota has not scored more than 23 since Week 1 this season and only once in 10 games, if this developed into any kind of shootout, even a mini one, there can only be one winner.

 

The Vikings offense is ranked 30th in EPA per play and star receiver Justin Jefferson is underperforming in general and was way out of sync with Wentz last week who overthrew him four times last week, a couple by a country mile in NFL terms.

 

I expect Allen to "beat" the blitz enough and for Cook to have a 100 yard day to cover the spread and the Bills to move on to 7-1.

 

 

2.5 units Buffalo Bills -4.5 points @ 2.23 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.

 

 

Good luck!