Nashville to dampen Fire....
Jun 14, 2025
MLS:Chicago Fire- Nashville SC
Fire have served us royally well in road games, including last week in Washington when they beat DCU 7-1! Ahead of which I wrote.....
Fire are back on the road again after that fine 3-1 win away to Orlando last weekend ......
Chicago Fire have won 4 of 8 road games this season and scored 18 goals, they are the only team to average over 2.0 goals in away games and only Philadelphia Union have won more. Fire also posted a big win in Boston in the US Open Cup and their nine starts away look insanely good offensively on paper......
| 23/02/25 | MLS | 4 - 2 | |||
| 09/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 3 | |||
| 15/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 2 | |||
| 23/03/25 | MLS | 1 - 3 | |||
| 06/04/25 | MLS | 2 - 1 | |||
| 27/04/25 | MLS | 7 - 2 | |||
| 18/05/25 | MLS | 1 - 4 | |||
| 21/05/25 | UOC | 1 - 3 | |||
| 25/05/25 | MLS | 3 - 1 |
We have to forgive the seven goals conceded in Nashville, but "we " think that NSC are elite, so all good with that and Fire have an issue in the Big Apple . However, they scored in each, two plus in all outside of NY and they played three top, top (to parody Thomas Frank) teams and visited several other really tough venues. They travel to another today, but it will be relatively cool in Orlando come kick off and always better to visit in May rather than high summer when conditions can be brutal. City have a strong 5-2-1 home record, but have conceded 11 goals and only three teams in the East have given up more when hosting. Fire have scored 2+ goals in three of seven h2h visits, in 3 of 5 if we eliminate the high summer games and Chicago had long been the worst travellers in MLS play, something they have, at long last, started to shake off , but that makes their scoring record here all the more noteworthy.
Fire led 3-0 in a little over 30 minutes and could then sit back and it was a very comfortable win. They are still only 11th, but are only 8 points off second place and this is the first of two games they have in hand, a win today could see them rise three spots and they definitely look on a par with 7th placed Orland as a minimum. The mood in the team and at the club is very upbeat and the Fire owner Joe Mansueto announced plans for a new stadium in something of a love letter to the city this week....
I love this city. I was born and raised in the shadow of its iconic skyline. I moved here for college 50 years ago – and I never left.
Chicago is where I built my business, my family and my life. And while I never set out to own a professional sports team, when the chance came to purchase the Chicago Fire in 2018 I couldn’t pass it up. Soccer is the world’s game and a world- class city like ours deserves a world-class Club – with a world-class home to match.
Today, we’re proud to announce our plans for a new, privately funded, soccer-specific stadium and entertainment district at Roosevelt and the river. We expect to open in Spring 2028. This new home for the Chicago Fire Football Club will anchor the city’s future 78th neighborhood and serve as a catalyst for job creation, economic development and vibrant community life.
But this project is more than just a stadium. It’s a space for fans of all ages, backgrounds and neighborhoods to come together and celebrate the beautiful game – right in the heart of our city. It’s about investing in Chicago, not just on match days, but every day as a committed community partner.
The Chicago Fire is a Club on the rise. And soon, we’ll have a permanent home that reflects the passion, energy and pride of the city we love.
Sincerely,
Joe Mansueto, Owner and Chairman
Chicago Fire Football Club
The franchise feels on the rise, they have had a seven year playoff drought, but I will be amazed if that doesn't come to an end this season and this is a much changed club, both on the playing side and amongst the backroom staff, who have led those on pitch chances. Gregg Berhalter is both head coach and director of football and Gregg Broughton of Blackburn Rovers has arrived as sporting director. Before spending six years leading the US national team, Berhalter had been with Columbus Crew for five years, again in that dual role that he occupies now with Fire and he took them to the postseason in four of those campaigns and to a MLS Cup final. He was appointed early, in October last year, so he had a long five months before the season started to start a major clear out and begin a rebuild. Fire are big spenders, with Mansueto never afraid to put his hand in his pocket, but much of that has been wasted in recent seasons and I suspect the owner is going to get more bang for his buck going forward. They were not afraid to spend money on some very left field additions in the off season, bringing in players from Belgium, Norway, La Liga and Segunda in Spain and the second and third tier in Portugal and pretty much all are in the starting 11. Broughton reports to Berhalter and his remit is to oversee talent development and assist in the recruitment, negotiation, and retention of players and staff. In addition, he will support Berhalter in implementing the technical strategy and maintaining alignment of the Club’s game model, principles of play, and positional profiles. Rovers are a club with good recruitment history and were and are not afraid to sign players from lesser known leagues and that model has been brought to the Windy City.
Anyway, good to get some background notes down for the future and I am obviously sticking with Fire today. DCU are coming off a fine 2-1 win at FC Cincinnati, but have not won back to back league games since October and a shortage of goals (16 scored is second fewest in the Conference) and goal difference (-13 is second worse and only four teams in the Easy have a negative GD) give cause for concern. In the last 13 months they have won just 3 of 21 home games which is a win rate some 31% below the MLS average and it is difficult to see them as offering value today as a 37% chance. The two teams have already shared four goals this season and it is Fire who have stepped up since then and especially on the road and they have to be the call.
They are on the rise and confidence levels must be sky high. However, they are back in Chicago, where they have won just 2 of 12 starts and face MUCH stronger opposition today and, in Nashville SC, the team who beat them 7-2 ( see results above) just seven weeks ago.
NSC are another team I have been championing and doing particularly well with them to score twice which they have done so in 6 of 7 starts, including three on the road, last start was a 2-2 draw with NYCFC and my notes on that are below the "good luck" sign off.They have had a full 14 days to rest up and prepare for today subsequently and we can expect them to play their part in another shootout as a minimum.
2.25 units Nashville SC level ball @ 2.07 asian line, best alternative is for them to score 2+ goals at similar odds.
Good luck!
Inform Nashville went to Columbus in midweek .....
I previewed TFC- Nashville at the weekend......
On the basis that one swallow does not a summer make, I am choosing to largely ignore Toronto's 6-1 win at Montreal last week. Their form and issues prior to that were so bad/noteworthy that I will need to see far more from them before changing my mind. Also, the game was even before CFM were reduced to 10 men early on and they still managed to create 2.0+ xG.
In very early season I wrote ......I do not know how much we can blame COVID, but in the five seasons up to 2020, Toronto finished 3-1-9-4-2 in the Eastern Conference and made it to three MLS Cup finals and would have been considered one of the top two teams in MLS play at the time with some genuine superstar players. Things have gone from bad to worse subsequently finishing 13th in both 20201 and 2022, they won only four games in 2023 and whilst they were 11th last season, they lost 10 home games and no one does that in MLS! Today is their first home game of the season, but they have shipped 8 goals in their three away games (2+ in each) and with that record last season and well, for the last four campaigns, no reason to think that things are simply going to get better just because of the switch in venue. They had a weak squad coming into this season and with no wriggle room within the salary cap to change things and basically, are pretty much what they were . Expected numbers suggested they probably overachieved for 11th and "ok" defensive numbers came at a cost offensively as they had to overprotect the defence and then they created little, it is a catch 22 situation and another season of struggle seems likely.
Their first start after I wrote that they created one attempt on goal, until last week they had won 2 of 20 starts and scored six goals in their last ten MLS outings.
Nashville made the clubgowi notes in March ......
Nashville were messed around a bit, being moved from the East to the Western Conference and back again, but are now established in their rightful place, but they are coming off their first ever missed playoff season and that is and was unacceptable. Their head coach was sacked mid season and BJ Callaghan took charge, that campaign was already lost, so it gave him time to experiment and begin the change in playing style that he wanted to implement early. They are looking for a more possession based game and have completely revamped the midfield and Gaston Brugman was signed to anchor this after playing 30 games in that very good LA Galaxy team last season. He has been injured and missed the first two games, but has come off the bench in the last two and must be near a start. Having said that Patrick Yazbek (Viking), Edvard Tagseth (Rosenborg) and Ahmed Qasem (Elfsborg) were all signed for big fees and are ahead in the pecking order right now and that the trio are expected to provide a lot of firepower for two proven goalscorers in Sam Surridge ( 12 goals in 28 games last season) and prolific Harry Mukhtar ( 77 goals and 45 assists in 173 appearances). Mukhtar was signed from Brondby and they clearly love a Scandi footballer! Both were on the scoresheet last weekend in a great and confidence building 3-1 win at Philadelphia Union, who were on fire and had won their first three starts scoring 10 goals. That was a well drilled and professional performance and NSC will be desperate to kick on now and record a 4th straight home win over Montreal. They prevailed 3-0 that day.
They have won 9 of 14 starts, despite having a blip at the start of that sequence, but they are building up a head of steam now, are unbeaten in seven. Mukhtar and Surridge have 18 goal contributions between them and were rested in midweek for today, despite which, Nashville still won 3-2 in Orlando in a US Open Cup game. All six of the above named players are in the squad now and they look another level to TFC. Nashville did the double in this series last season including a 2-1 win here in Ontario.
Nashville were comfortable 2-1 winners, with the Toronto goal coming in added time and the visitors dominating the game statistically. Any team with Supporters Shield /MLS Cup ambitions coming to BMO Field should be looking to leave with three points and probably feel like they have lost ground to rivals if they come up short.
Nashville now face a much tougher task in Columbus, where, if we look at the last 2-3 seasons as a whole, Crew have been the best team in MLS for my money. However, maybe a slight drop off this season and they are having a mini blip, being winless in four and conceding 9 goals in their last five and they gave up 8 BC's in Charlotte over the weekend. They are good and will finish top 4, but if you have to come to Ohio to play them, then now is as good a time as any, I like NSC as a team, they have kept clean sheets in 2 of 4 h2h visits and odds are good.
That played out well for us in a 2-2 draw, but Nashville will have been hugely disappointed not to have taken all three points as they "won" xG 2.77-2.26 and BC's 7-1 (!).
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